尿素周度报告-20251012

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The urea market is expected to operate weakly in the short - term. The main contradiction is the weak domestic demand. Even though exports are ongoing, the price - driving effect is limited due to sufficient pre - stocking by traders and high social inventory. The decline in domestic demand is the main factor causing the price drop, and it is expected that the increase in exports cannot make up for the weakening domestic demand. In the medium - term, the trend is weak, and the lower - end valuation of urea will gradually approach the cash - flow cost line of the fixed - bed units of northern factories. The escalation of Sino - US trade conflicts and the weakness of the commodity index also drag down the urea price. [2] - The report suggests paying attention to the further development of Sino - US trade conflicts and whether China will adjust export - related policies due to the weak fundamentals and price of urea. [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Valuation: Price and Spread - There are charts showing historical data of urea basis (including ZhengYuan, JinKai, BoDa, DongPing), urea monthly spreads (5 - 9, 1 - 5, 9 - 1), warehouse receipts, domestic and international spot prices (domestic including ZhengYuan small - particle urea, Hebei small - particle urea, etc.; international including Baltic large - particle urea FOB, Chinese small - particle urea FOB, etc.). [5][9][15][20] Domestic Supply Capacity - The expansion pattern of urea production capacity in 2025 continues. In 2024, a total of 427 million tons of new production capacity was added, and in 2025, 346 million tons of new production capacity is expected to be added. Many enterprises have new production capacity or device resumption plans, such as Tengzhou LuNan, Anhui QuanSheng Chemical, etc. [24] Production - In the 40th week of 2025 (October 2 - 8, 2025), China's urea production was 1.4028 million tons, an increase of 32,200 tons from the previous week, a week - on - week increase of 2.35%. The average daily production was 200,400 tons, an increase of 46,000 tons from the previous week. Next week, China's urea production is expected to be around 1.32 - 1.33 million tons, a significant decrease from this period. [2] - There are many urea production enterprises with maintenance plans, including Yankuang XinJiang Coal Chemical, Shandong JinMei MingShui Chemical Group, etc. Some maintenance plans are postponed, cancelled, or carried out as scheduled. [27] Cost - Raw material prices are stable, and the factory's cash - flow cost line is stable. The report provides cost calculations for Shanxi fixed - bed factories and historical data on the full - cost of urea in different production processes (air - flow bed, fixed - bed, natural gas). [31] Profit - The profit corresponding to the cash - flow cost of urea is currently in a profitable state. There are charts showing the cash - flow profit of urea fixed - bed units and the production profit of urea in different production processes. [37] Net Import (Export) - Export policies have been adjusted, and subsequent export volumes may increase. The report lists the monthly export data of urea from 2018 to 2025. [43] Domestic Demand Agricultural Demand - Agricultural demand shows seasonal strength. Different regions and crops have different demand patterns throughout the year. For example, in September, there is a large demand for wheat base fertilizer. [49][50] - The construction of high - standard farmland has led to an incremental demand for urea from corn. By 2025, a total of 1.075 billion mu of high - standard farmland is expected to be built, and 105 million mu is expected to be renovated and upgraded. [52] Industrial Demand - Compound Fertilizer: The cost, inventory, production profit, and capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers are provided through charts. Currently, the compound fertilizer industry has high product sales pressure, low capacity utilization rate, and limited demand for urea raw materials. [56][57][58] - Melamine: There are charts showing the production profit, market price, production volume, and capacity utilization rate of melamine. [60][61] - Real Estate and Wood Products: The demand for urea from the real estate industry's support for wood - based panels is relatively limited, but wood - based panel exports are resilient. There are data on the export volume of plywood, oriented strand board, and the cumulative values and year - on - year growth rates of real estate completion and construction areas. [62][63] Inventory - Factory inventory: On October 9, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.4439 million tons, an increase of 212,200 tons from the previous week, a week - on - week increase of 17.23%. During the National Day, due to continuous rainfall and weak industrial and agricultural demand, most urea enterprises had inventory build - up. [2][68] - Port inventory: As of October 9, 2025 (the 41st week), the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports was 415,000 tons, a decrease of 38,000 tons from the previous week, a week - on - week decline of 8.39%. The departure speed of port goods accelerated this period. [2][68] International Urea - There are charts showing historical data of international urea prices, including Chinese large - particle urea FOB, Baltic large - particle urea FOB, Middle East large - particle urea FOB, and Brazilian large - particle urea CFR. [72][73][74][75]