原油周度报告-20251012

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Group 2: Core Views of the Report - This week, crude oil prices tumbled due to macro - sentiment and may continue to be weak in the short term. The global crude oil supply is in a pattern of cautious growth under "tight balance". The OPEC + alliance will increase production slightly in November, while non - OPEC + supply, such as US shale oil, faces bottlenecks. Global crude oil demand shows resilience but with a changing internal structure. The growth of demand is shifting from gasoline to diesel and aviation fuel. There are uncertainties in future demand due to the overall economic outlook. [6][7] - Short - term, the price may continue to decline by $2 - 3 per barrel. By the end of this year and the beginning of next year, Brent and WTI may test $50 per barrel, and SC may test 420 yuan per barrel. Although the price decline has accelerated under the influence of trade frictions, it is difficult to decline continuously in the medium - long term. Attention should be paid to potential reversals in macro - expectations, which may amplify price fluctuations. [7] - The logic behind the views includes the intensification of Sino - US trade frictions, continuous OPEC + production increases and the start of seasonal inventory accumulation. There is a large long - term oversupply pressure, and inventory accumulation in the fourth quarter is hard to disprove. Attention should also be paid to the risk of a decline in Russian oil exports due to potential sanctions, and the increase in oil freight rates may stimulate the expansion of cross - regional spreads. [8] - In terms of valuation, the short - term valuation is at a medium - low level, and the oil price has fallen close to the cost of shale oil and is near the low point of this year. The strategy is to remain on the sidelines for single - sided trading and not to bottom - fish for now. Hold a light long - spread position (buy SC11, sell SC12) and add positions opportunistically in the future. The EFS spread and SC - Dubai spread may reverse. [8] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Macro - Sino - US trade frictions have escalated again, and the gold - oil ratio has increased. Overseas PPI has risen, and attention should be paid to inflation transmission. The RMB exchange rate has weakened slightly, and social financing has declined. [13][19][24] 2. Supply - OPEC +: The core supply side, the OPEC + alliance, adheres to its market - stabilizing strategy. In November, it will only increase production by 137,000 barrels per day, and the actual incremental supply flowing into the market is more limited due to compensatory production cuts and capacity bottlenecks. The future policy of OPEC + will highly depend on whether the expected supply surplus in 2025 - 2026 will materialize. [6] - Non - OPEC +: US shale oil production is facing bottlenecks. Investment is restricted due to oil price uncertainty and rising costs, and production growth has significantly slowed down or even declined. Geopolitical events such as the Ukrainian attack on Russian refineries have continuously disrupted Russian refined oil exports, while the return of Iraqi Kirkuk crude oil has provided a new source of medium - sulfur crude oil. The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) repurchase plan will absorb more than 17 million barrels of crude oil from the market, further tightening the supply. [6] 3. Demand - Global demand shows resilience, but the internal structure is changing. US demand is an important support, with strong diesel consumption but weak gasoline demand. Emerging markets are showing differentiation. Indian demand has rebounded rapidly, while Chinese refineries have adjusted their procurement strategies. Jet fuel has become a new bright spot in global demand. However, the global refinery maintenance season has temporarily suppressed direct crude oil demand. [7] 4. Inventory - US commercial inventories have stabilized, and inventories in the Cushing area have also stabilized but are significantly lower than historical averages. European diesel inventories have rebounded, and gasoline inventories have decreased. Domestic refined oil profit margins have declined. [76][80][88] 5. Price and Spread - The global crude oil spot market has no obvious highlights. In the Middle East, Aramco's November OSP was not raised as expected. In the Americas, high - sulfur crude oil has strengthened, while low - sulfur crude oil is slightly weak. In the North Sea, there are differences in price trends. In the Mediterranean, there is still a bearish sentiment for low - sulfur crude oil. In West Africa, there is no obvious bullish sentiment. [92][94][95]