黑色与建材原木周度报告-20251012

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - The spot price of mainstream delivery product 3.9m 30+ radiata pine in Shandong remained flat compared to last week, while in Jiangsu it increased by 5 yuan/cubic meter. The European spruce and fir in the Jiangsu market are still in short supply. The market is in a weak supply - demand pattern, and the futures market shows a high - level correction this week [4][17] - The total inventory of the four major ports decreased by 3.09 million cubic meters compared to the previous week, with different trends in each port's inventory and daily shipment volume [6][11] Summary by Directory 1. Overview - For 3.9m 30+ radiata pine, Shandong's quote was 765 yuan/cubic meter (unchanged from last week), and Jiangsu's was 770 yuan/cubic meter (up 5 yuan/cubic meter). The 3.9m 40+ radiata pine in Shandong was priced at 850 yuan/cubic meter (unchanged), and the 5.9m 30+ radiata pine was 805 yuan/cubic meter (up 20 yuan/cubic meter). European spruce and fir in Jiangsu are in short supply [4] - As of October 5, there were 7 ships departing from New Zealand in October, 6 going to the Chinese mainland and 1 for unloading in Taiwan, China and South Korea. It is expected that 7 ships will arrive in October and 0 in November, with an expected arrival volume of 1.34 million cubic meters in October [5] - As of the week of September 26, the daily shipment volume of Lanshan Port was 1.72 million cubic meters (down 0.36 million cubic meters week - on - week), and that of Taicang Port was 1.44 million cubic meters (up 0.18 million cubic meters week - on - week). In terms of port inventory, Lanshan Port had about 1.1558 million cubic meters (up 1.50 million cubic meters week - on - week), Taicang Port had about 0.4394 million cubic meters (down 3.75 million cubic meters week - on - week), Xinminzhou had about 0.3050 million cubic meters (up 1.45 million cubic meters week - on - week), and Jiangdu Port had about 0.1235 million cubic meters (down 2.29 million cubic meters week - on - week). The total inventory of the four major ports was 2.0237 million cubic meters, a decrease of 3.09 million cubic meters from the previous week [6][11] - As of the week of October 12, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was 1936 points, up 35 points (+1.8%) from last week. The related Handysize Shipping Index BHSI was 873, up 0.6% from last week. The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1160.42 points, up 4.1% from last week. The US dollar index fluctuated narrowly. The US dollar to RMB exchange rate was 7.129, up 0.13% week - on - week, and the US dollar to New Zealand dollar exchange rate rose 0.2% to 1.723 [6][56] 2. Supply - New Zealand log shipping schedule data shows 7 ships departing in October, with details of their departure time, load, current port, expected destination port, and expected arrival time [8] 3. Demand and Inventory - As of the week of September 26, the daily shipment volume and inventory of different ports showed different trends. The total inventory of the four major ports decreased by 3.09 million cubic meters compared to the previous week. The data also shows the inventory and changes of different tree species in each port [11][12] 4. Market Trends - As of October 10, the closing price of the main contract LG2511 was 821 yuan/cubic meter, up 0.6% from last week. The market showed a high - level correction this week, and the monthly spread changes were small [17] 5. Price and Spread - Spot price data of different tree species and specifications in Shandong and Jiangsu regions are provided, including 3.9m 30+ radiata pine, 3.9m 40+ radiata pine, etc., along with their price changes compared to last week and four weeks ago [21] - The regional price differences between Shandong and Jiangsu for different tree species and specifications are presented, such as 3.9m 30+ radiata pine, 3.9m 40+ radiata pine, etc. [23][28][32] - The price differences between different tree species and specifications are also shown, like the difference between 3.9m 30+ radiata pine and 3.9m 40+ radiata pine [40][42][44] 6. Other - Other price influencing factors include freight rates and exchange rates. The dry bulk BDI, Handysize BHSI, crude oil BDTI, and SCFI all had different changes compared to last week and four weeks ago. The US dollar to RMB and US dollar to New Zealand dollar exchange rates also changed [55][56]