能源化工短纤、瓶片周度报告-20251012

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - For short - fiber (PF), it is in a short - term volatile market and is expected to be weak in the medium term. The price is driven down by expectations, with increased volatility. Although the current absolute price is low and downstream buying interest is okay, the cost - side price and supply - demand support are both weak. There may be opportunities for recovery if there is a significant short - term over - decline due to tariff expectations [7][8]. - For bottle chips (PR), it is in a situation of being driven down by expectations and having increased volatility. The fourth - quarter factory operation rate is expected to remain at 81% overall. The demand in the fourth quarter is in the off - season, and there is inventory accumulation pressure. If there is a significant short - term over - decline due to tariff expectations, there may be a chance of regression and repair [11][12]. Summary by Directory Short - fiber (PF) Valuation and Profit - The current spot premium is 1000 - 1100 yuan/ton, which is neutral. The futures processing fee is 1000 yuan/ton, and the valuation of the processing fee and the inter - month spread is basically reasonable, while the basis is high [9]. Fundamental Operation - Supply: After the National Day, the average operating rate of short - fiber decreased to 94.3%, and the operating rate of direct - spinning polyester staple for spinning decreased to 94.5%. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 93% - 95% in the future and may gradually decline slightly from October to November [7]. - Demand: Downstream orders had a concentrated outbreak before the festival, but the sustainability was average due to the hot weather after the festival. The knitted market is better than the woven market. The finished product pressure of pure polyester yarn and polyester - cotton yarn is okay, and the inventory of grey cloth has decreased. The terminal demand may continue to be affected by the repeated US tariffs [7]. Strategy - Unilateral: Observe the market's reaction to tariff expectations in the short term. Try to go long if there is a significant over - decline [10]. - Inter - period: Hold long spreads [10]. - Inter - variety: None [10]. Bottle Chips (PR) Valuation and Profit - The spot processing fee is 500 yuan/ton, which is over - valued. The processing fees of the November and December futures are 450 - 500 yuan/ton, which are also over - valued, but it may be difficult to compress them due to the weak cost [13]. Fundamental Operation - Supply: The factory operation rate is expected to remain at 81% in the fourth quarter. Currently, factories are still maintaining the production reduction. The 110 - million - ton bottle - chip device of Huarun Zhuhai restarted gradually at the end of September, and the 50 - million - ton device is still increasing its load. It is expected to maintain production reduction and industry self - discipline in the future, with the load generally remaining around 80% [11]. - Demand: The price continued to decline, and there was still an increase in low - price purchases. The demand from October to November decreased month - on - month. The operating rate of beverage factories decreased to about 80%, and the operating rates of edible oil and sheet materials also decreased. The bottle - chip factories accumulated inventory to about 18 days during the National Day. The export in October - November is expected to be in the range of 50 - 55 million tons [11]. Strategy - Unilateral: Observe the market's reaction to tariff expectations in the short term. Try to go long if there is a significant over - decline [13]. - Inter - period: Hold long spreads [13]. - Inter - variety: Go long on TA and short on PR for the November and December contracts when the processing fee is around 480 - 500 yuan/ton [13]. Other Aspects - Cost and Profit: The polymerization cost has dropped to about 5250 - 5350 yuan/ton. The raw materials are weak, and the bottle - chip processing fee is oscillating at a high level. The export profit has also recovered, about 780 - 800 yuan/ton [48]. - Inventory: The overall PTA inventory of polyester factories has increased, and the inventory of domestic polyester bottle - chip factories has risen to around 18 days. It is expected to continue to accumulate inventory from October to November [53]. - Device Changes: Most factories maintain a 20% production reduction. The new 30 - million - ton device of Fuhai is expected to be put into production in late October, and Wuliangye's 10 - million - ton plan is expected to be launched at the end of this year or early next year [59]. - Demand: The downstream operating rate has declined. The operating rate of beverage enterprises ranges from 60% - 90%, the sheet - material industry in East China operates at 60% - 80% and in South China at 40% - 70%, and the average operating rate of edible oil enterprises is around 60% - 80% [63]. - Export: From January to August 2025, the total export volume of domestic polyester bottle - chips and slices was 5.195 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 16.1%. The short - term disturbances include the impact of the US tariff renegotiation on re - exports from South Korea and Vietnam, and the impact of the commissioning of Turkey's SASA on exports to the local area [86].