棕榈油：产地驱动有限，关注下方支撑及宏观风险，豆油：中美经贸关系加剧盘面波动

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Views of the Report - The palm oil market lacks strong upward drivers from the producing regions. There are concerns about Indonesia's inventory accumulation, and the market may continue to fluctuate until the end of the year. Further price movements depend on the B50 story and production issues [2][4][5] - The soybean oil market is affected by factors such as the SRE allocation, RVO policy, and Sino - US trade relations. The price mainly follows the trends of crude oil, diesel crack spreads, and South American soybean oil prices. The opening of the market next week is expected to be volatile due to Trump's tariff increase on China [4][5] Summary by Related Catalogs Last Week's Views and Logic - Palm oil: During the long holiday, the B50 news from Indonesia stimulated a rebound in the palm oil market, but there was no actual tightening signal in the supply side of the producing regions. The MPOB report showed an unexpected inventory build - up, halting the upward trend. The palm oil 01 contract rose 2.28% last week [1] - Soybean oil: During the holiday, US soybeans and US soybean oil showed a slight rebound. With the accelerating progress of US soybean harvesting and Brazilian sowing, soybean oil lacked an independent driver and mainly fluctuated with the oil and fat sector. The soybean oil 01 contract rose 1.99% last week. Trump's tough stance on China's trade on Friday night may affect the market opening next week [1] This Week's Views and Logic Palm oil - Producing regions: The MPOB report confirmed the inventory pressure in Malaysia in September, and the narrowing spread between UCO FOB and CPO FOB in Malaysia since September indicated a return to normal domestic consumption. However, the potential export tax on UCO and POME in Malaysia has an uncertain impact. In Indonesia, the inventory is expected to be in the range of 200 - 300 million tons in the third quarter, and the annual production increase is at least 5.5 million tons. The narrowing Indo - Malaysian price spread and concerns about Indonesia's inventory accumulation make it difficult to find strong short - term drivers [2] - Consumption regions: The import profit of crude sunflower oil in India is better than that of CPO, and there is no strong expectation for India's future demand. The European HVO profit is high, but relying solely on European biodiesel demand to be bullish on the oil market is a pessimistic view. The market may continue to fluctuate until the end of the year, and the price movement depends on the B50 story and production issues [2][4][5] Soybean oil - International market: The cost - effectiveness of US soybean oil in the biodiesel sector has declined, and there is a high pressure of inventory build - up by the end of the year. The implementation of relevant policies may be postponed to next year, and the price mainly follows the trends of crude oil, diesel crack spreads, and South American soybean oil prices [2][4] - Domestic market: The export demand may lead to continuous inventory reduction in the domestic soybean oil market until March next year. The market is affected by Sino - US trade relations, and the opening next week is expected to be volatile [4][5] Basic Market Data of Futures - Palm oil main contract: The opening price was 9,452 yuan/ton, the closing price was 9,438 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 2.70%. The trading volume was 1,242,800 lots, and the open interest increased by 35,596 lots [7] - Soybean oil main contract: The opening price was 8,212 yuan/ton, the closing price was 8,302 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 2.32%. The trading volume was 842,968 lots, and the open interest decreased by 10,070 lots [7] - Other data: Included price differences such as the vegetable - soybean 01 spread, soybean - palm 01 spread, and inventory data of different oils [7] Core Fundamental Data of Oils - Malaysia: The palm oil production in Malaysia may enter the off - season earlier, and the inventory in September may reach an inflection point. The export volume from October 1 - 10 was 523,602 tons, a 9.86% increase compared to the same period last month [9][10][11] - Indonesia: The inventory in Indonesia is expected to recover to last year's level after the second quarter, and the Indo - Malaysian price spread is rapidly declining [11] - Other aspects: Included data on fruit bunch prices in North Sumatra, refining profits in Indonesia, POGO spreads, rainfall in Malaysia and Indonesia, import profits and CNF spreads in India, and EU's import volume of palm oil and four major oils [11][12][13]