能源化工玻璃纯碱周度报告-20251012

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Glass: Short - term outlook is weakly oscillating, and medium - term is an oscillating market. The short - term pressure comes from the unclear implementation of anti - deflation and anti - involution policies and the weak real estate market. However, the undetermined anti - deflation and anti - involution policies prevent excessive bearishness. The manufacturer's inventory is not at a high level, so the spot price decline may be slow, and the basis is no longer weak [2]. -纯碱: The trend is weakly downward. The long - standing issues of high production and high inventory are worsening. Either significant production cuts in soda ash or continuous improvement in the glass market to drive positive feedback are needed. If the glass industry does not continue to improve and no substantial anti - involution measures are implemented for soda ash, the market will be oscillating or the price will be weak [4]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Glass Supply - As of October 9, 2025, the daily output of national float glass was 161,300 tons, unchanged from the 3rd. The weekly output from October 3 - 9, 2025 was 1.1289 million tons, a 0.11% increase from the previous week and a 0.98% decrease year - on - year. The short - term production reduction space is limited, and the production capacity is expected to change little in the fourth quarter. The current in - production capacity is about 161,000 tons per day, and the peak production capacity in 2021 was 178,000 tons per day [2][16]. - In 2025, the total daily melting volume of cold - repaired production lines was 11,680 tons per day; the total daily melting volume of ignited production lines was 13,210 tons per day; the total potential daily melting volume of new ignited production lines was 14,790 tons per day; the total potential daily melting volume of old production line restarts was 10,730 tons; and the total potential daily melting volume of cold - repaired production lines was 8,100 tons per day [9][10][11]. Demand - As of September 30, 2025, the average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises was 11.0 days, a 4.9% increase from the previous period and a 19.0% decrease year - on - year. The deep - processing orders are mainly concentrated in engineering orders, with a scheduling period of 15 - 30 days and some up to 60 days. The deep - processing price has a plan to increase after the festival, but the market is cautious about the price increase, and the actual price exploration needs further observation. The increase in the raw glass price has also made some deep - processing enterprises more cautious in accepting orders [2]. Inventory - As of October 9, 2025, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 62.824 million heavy boxes, a 3.469 million heavy - box increase from the previous period, a 5.85% increase from the previous period and a 6.76% increase year - on - year. The inventory days were 26.7 days, 1.3 days more than the previous period. During the National Day, due to downstream holidays and rainfall, the inventory in the North China region generally increased. The East China market had inventory accumulation, and the Central China market's inventory increased compared to the end of September. The South China market's inventory first decreased and then increased [2]. Price and Profit - The price in the Shahe area is around 1,210 - 1,270 yuan per ton; in the Hubei area of Central China, it is around 1,190 - 1,240 yuan per ton; and in some large factories in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang areas of East China, it is around 1,340 - 1,400 yuan per ton. Recently, the spot price has changed little, the basis and the spread between different contract months have strengthened. The profit of using petroleum coke as fuel is about 61 yuan per ton, the profit of using natural gas is - 151 yuan per ton, and the profit of using coal is 95 yuan per ton [23][25][32]. Photovoltaic Glass - Price and Profit: The overall domestic photovoltaic glass market has good transactions, and the price is oscillating upwards. The mainstream order price of 2.0mm coated panels is around 13 yuan per square meter, and the 3.2mm coated mainstream order price is around 20 yuan per square meter, both remaining flat compared to the previous period [47][49]. - Capacity and Inventory: The capacity has changed little recently, the trading has improved, and the inventory has declined. The number of national photovoltaic glass in - production production lines is 408, with a total daily melting volume of 89,290 tons per day, unchanged from the previous week and a 14.28% decrease year - on - year. The sample inventory days are about 14.65 days, a 2.50% decrease from the previous period [51][52][60]. Soda Ash Supply and Maintenance - The domestic soda ash production was 770,800 tons, a 6,600 - ton decrease from the previous week (September 26 - October 2, 2025), a 0.85% decline. The production of light soda ash was 342,100 tons, a 38,000 - ton decrease from the previous week, and the production of heavy soda ash was 428,700 tons, a 28,000 - ton decrease from the previous week. Some maintenance devices have resumed production, and the production has rebounded. The current weekly production of heavy soda ash is around 430,000 tons per week [3][63][68]. - The capacity utilization rate of soda ash was 88.4%, down from 89.12% last week. There are still pressures from new production capacity in the later stage [65]. Inventory - As of October 9, 2025, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was about 1.66 million tons. The inventory of light soda ash was 739,100 tons, a 42,400 - ton increase from the previous period, and the inventory of heavy soda ash was 920,700 tons, a 17,500 - ton increase from the previous period [71][73]. Price and Profit - The nominal prices in the Shahe and Hubei areas are around 1,210 - 1,400 yuan per ton. The market price has changed little. The basis and the spread between different contract months show that the near - term contracts are under pressure due to high production and high inventory. The profit of the joint - alkali method in East China (excluding Shandong) is - 77 yuan per ton, and the profit of the ammonia - alkali method in North China is - 37 yuan per ton [81][85][88].