铸造铝合金产业链周报-20251012

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the holiday, the price of cast aluminum alloy fluctuated strongly, reaching a high of 20,775 yuan/ton during the week. However, the Sino-US tariff issue flared up again on Friday night, causing a decline in the night session. Although the market was relatively restrained, there is a possibility of further fermentation of negative sentiment, which requires dynamic tracking [6]. - From the supply side, the price of scrap aluminum generally increased around the holiday, and the price of raw aluminum is prone to rise and difficult to fall. Some enterprises' raw material inventories are at a historical low. From the demand side, the industry's operating rate continued to rise, and the market demand gradually recovered after the holiday. Overall, with the start of the year - end sales rush in the automotive industry, the seasonal performance in the fourth quarter may be stronger. Coupled with the implementation of the cancellation of tax rebates and the continuous tight supply of scrap aluminum, the cost - side increase logic will strongly support the price. Based on the judgment of the unilateral price of electrolytic aluminum, the medium - to - long - term outlook is bullish, and it is advisable to look for buying opportunities on dips [6]. - As of October 10, the combined inventory of aluminum alloy ingot factories and social warehouses increased by 0.57 million tons to 13.72 million tons compared with the previous week, and the inventory pressure remains high. In the downstream, in the fourth week of September (September 21 - 27), domestic automobile sales reached 585,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 26.62%. Overall, the effect of the trade - in policy is prominent, and the fourth batch of funds was advanced at the end of September, which helps to stabilize consumer confidence and continuously boost automobile consumption. With the arrival of the "Golden September and Silver October", the growth of automobile sales is expected to improve month - on - month [6]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Transaction End - Volume and Price - No specific text summary information is provided, only some graphical data such as price differentials, capital precipitation, trading volume, and open interest are presented [9]. 3.2 Transaction End - Arbitrage 3.2.1 Inter - period Positive Spread Cost Calculation - For the cast aluminum alloy inter - period spread cost calculation in the warehouse receipt system on October 10, 2025, the futures prices of AD2511.shf and AD2512.shf are 20,465 yuan/ton and 20,540 yuan/ton respectively, with a price difference of 75 yuan/ton. The fixed cost is 12.72 yuan/ton, and the floating cost is 67.27 yuan/ton, with a total cost of 80 yuan/ton [12]. 3.2.2 Spot - Futures Arbitrage Cost Calculation - The market's actual spot quotation fluctuates around the Baotai price. Taking the Baotai Group's latest quotation of 20,700 yuan/ton as an example, considering various costs such as warehouse storage fees, capital costs, and handling fees, the warehouse receipt cost is 20,916.2 yuan/ton [13][14]. 3.3 Supply End - Scrap Aluminum - Scrap aluminum production is at a high level, and social inventory is at a medium - to - high level in history [16]. - Scrap aluminum imports are at a high level, with a relatively fast year - on - year growth rate. For example, in August 2025, the import of aluminum scrap and waste was 170,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 26%, and the cumulative import was 1.34 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 53% [20]. - The refined - scrap price differential is trending downward [25]. 3.4 Supply End - Recycled Aluminum - The price of Baotai ADC12 has increased, and the price differential between recycled and primary aluminum has significantly converged [33]. - The regional price differential of cast aluminum alloy has weakened and shows certain seasonal patterns [38]. - The weekly operating rate of cast aluminum alloy has increased, while the monthly operating rate has slightly decreased [43]. - The cost of ADC12 is mainly composed of scrap aluminum (90%), and the current estimated cost is above the break - even line [49]. - The factory inventory of cast aluminum alloy has decreased, while the social inventory is at a historical high [54]. - The import window for cast aluminum alloy is currently closed [59]. - Regarding recycled aluminum rods, the production and inventory data are presented, and the production and inventory proportions of different regions are also provided [62][63][64][65]. 3.5 Demand End - Terminal Consumption - In terminal consumption, the production of fuel - powered vehicles is at a low level, which has an impact on die - casting consumption [68]. - Data on the production of new energy vehicles, fuel - powered vehicles, motorcycles, and small household appliances are presented, as well as the year - on - year change in PPI of auto parts manufacturing and the auto inventory warning index [69].