生猪：去库不通畅，现货底未现

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - The spot price of live pigs is expected to remain weak in the coming week. In October, supply will increase while demand decreases, and the inventory cycle will shift from accumulation to reduction. The spot price is still in the process of finding a bottom [3]. - For the futures market, the LH2511 contract may see a basis - convergence market. There is an expectation of a cycle reversal in the third quarter of 2026, and the structure is mainly in a large reverse spread. The short - term support level for the LH2511 contract is 10,000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 11,500 yuan/ton [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 This Week's Market Review (9.29 - 10.12) Spot Market - Live pig prices are running weakly. The price of 20KG piglets in Henan is 20.4 yuan/kg (last week: 24.55 yuan/kg), the price of live pigs in Henan is 11.13 yuan/kg (last week: 12.58 yuan/kg), and the price of 50KG binary sows nationwide is 1,566 yuan/head (last week: 1,590 yuan/head) [1]. - On the supply side, the group's slaughter progress is slow, and individual farmers are reluctant to sell, resulting in a loose supply. On the demand side, the pre - festival stocking volume was large, the slaughter volume decreased after the festival, and some secondary fattening farmers actively entered the market. The average slaughter weight nationwide this week is 124.46KG (last week: 124.35KG), with a month - on - month increase of 0.09% [1]. Futures Market - Live pig futures prices are running weakly. The highest price of the LH2511 contract this week is 11,905 yuan/ton, the lowest price is 11,320 yuan/ton, and the closing price is 11,320 yuan/ton (last week: 12,575 yuan/ton). The basis of the LH2511 contract is - 190 yuan/ton (last week: 5 yuan/ton) [2]. 3.2 Next Week's Market Outlook (10.13 - 10.19) Spot Market - The spot price of live pigs will run weakly. Although it should have entered the active inventory reduction stage since mid - to - late September, effective inventory reduction has not been seen yet, and the spot price continues to decline. Supply is expected to increase in October, and demand will enter the off - season again, so the spot price is still in the process of finding a bottom [3]. Futures Market - The LH2511 contract closed at 11,320 yuan/ton on October 10th. The peak season during the double festivals fell short of expectations, and the expected slaughter volume will continue to increase significantly in October. The inventory cycle is still in the passive inventory accumulation stage, and the spot price bottom has not appeared. For the 2026 third - quarter market, there is an expectation of a cycle reversal, and the structure is mainly in a large reverse spread. Short - term support and pressure levels are 10,000 yuan/ton and 11,500 yuan/ton respectively [4]. 3.3 Other Data - This week's basis is - 190 yuan/ton; the LH2511 - LH2601 month spread is - 820 yuan/ton [8]. - The average weight this week is 124.46KG (last week: 124.35KG). In August, pork production was 5.309 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.9%; pork imports were 81,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.46% [11].