铝&氧化铝产业链周度报告-20251012

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The aluminum market was affected by sudden tariff disturbances over the weekend, with risks focused on liquidity and recession themes. If the optimistic scenario unfolds, aluminum prices are likely to find buying points on pullbacks; if a recession occurs, there may be significant downward pressure on aluminum profit margins. In the long - term, the report remains bullish on aluminum's unilateral price, volatility, and smelting profit [3]. - The alumina market's center continues to move downward, with valuation and drivers in continuous game. Short - term spot prices are weak, and there is still a risk of further decline [4]. Summaries by Directory Aluminum - Market Performance: After the holiday, Shanghai aluminum initially strengthened with other non - ferrous metals but dropped at night on Friday due to Sino - US tariff issues. The decline was relatively mild. Market sentiment on Monday may further pull down prices, and the long - term trend remains bullish [3]. - Fundamental Indicators: The SMM East China and South China spot discounts widened. Aluminum ingot social inventory increased by 47,000 tons to 634,000 tons during the National Day holiday. Downstream production and processing profits generally weakened [3]. - Downstream Demand: The overall aluminum processing start - up rate dropped to 62.5% during the National Day holiday. Different downstream sectors showed different performances, with some facing challenges such as weak orders, financial pressure, and logistical constraints [3]. Alumina - Market Trend: After the holiday and on Friday night, alumina's performance was weak, and its center continued to move down, currently testing the 2800 support level. The short - term spot market remains weak [4]. - Price and Inventory: The spot price continued to decline. The all - caliber social inventory of alumina increased by 105,000 tons to 3.902 million tons as of October 9 [4][51]. Trading - Price Spreads: The A00 spot premium weakened, while the alumina spot premium strengthened. The monthly spread of Shanghai aluminum flattened [9][10]. - Volume and Open Interest: The open interest of the Shanghai aluminum main contract slightly declined, and the trading volume slightly increased. The open interest of the alumina main contract slightly increased and is at a historical high, and the trading volume also slightly increased [13]. - Open Interest - to - Inventory Ratio: The open interest - to - inventory ratio of Shanghai aluminum declined, and that of alumina continued to fall and is at a historical low [18]. Inventory - Bauxite: Port inventory and inventory days decreased. The inventory of 43 sample enterprises increased by 420,000 tons in September. The shipping volume and floating inventory from Guinea increased, while those from Australia decreased. The outbound volume was divided, and the inbound volume declined [23][28][29]. - Alumina: The total national inventory continued to increase. As of October 9, the national alumina inventory was 3.902 million tons, an increase of 105,000 tons from the previous week [38][51]. - Electrolytic Aluminum: The inventory continued to accumulate. As of October 9, the social inventory of aluminum ingots increased by 20,000 tons to 634,000 tons [52]. - Processed Products: The spot and in - plant inventories of aluminum rods were divided. The raw material and finished product inventory ratios of aluminum profiles and plate - strip foil were also divided [58][61]. Production - Bauxite: Domestic bauxite supply was generally stable. In September, the production of domestic bauxite decreased, with different trends in different provinces [64][66]. - Alumina: The capacity utilization rate remained stable. As of October 10, the total operating capacity of alumina was 98.2 million tons, an increase of 400,000 tons from the previous week. The weekly production of domestic metallurgical alumina was 1.863 million tons, an increase of 3,000 tons from the previous week [70]. - Electrolytic Aluminum: The operating capacity remained at a high level. As of October 9, the weekly production of electrolytic aluminum was 852,700 tons, a decrease of 200 tons from the previous week. The proportion of aluminum water increased seasonally [73]. - Downstream Processing: The production of recycled aluminum rods increased, the production of aluminum rods decreased slightly, and the production of aluminum plate - strip foil decreased slightly. The start - up rate of leading downstream aluminum enterprises decreased slightly to 62.5% [76][78]. Profit - Alumina: The smelting profit declined marginally. The profit of metallurgical alumina was 135.4 yuan/ton. The profits in Shandong, Shanxi, and Henan were stable, and the profit in Guangxi was better [91]. - Electrolytic Aluminum: The profit remained at a high level, but the complex global macro - economic situation and trade policy uncertainties interfered with market expectations [103]. - Downstream Processing: The processing fee of aluminum rods decreased by 100 yuan/ton, and the downstream processing profit remained at a low level [104]. Consumption - Import and Export Profits and Losses: The import losses of alumina and Shanghai aluminum narrowed. In August 2025, the export of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products decreased slightly by 8,000 tons month - on - month. The export profits and losses of aluminum processed products were divided [112][114][117]. - Consumption Volume: The commercial housing transaction area declined, and the automobile production increased month - on - month [120].