能源化工甲醇周度报告-20251012

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention an industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - Methanol is under pressure and shows a weak short - term performance due to the resonance of fundamentals and macro - sentiment. The upward pressure on the price mainly comes from the supply side of the fundamentals, with high imports and high daily production leading to an increase in inventory. The high port inventory pressure forces methanol to flow back to the mainland. Additionally, the escalation of Sino - US trade conflicts may lead to weak expectations for the demand side of methanol [2][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price and Spread - There are graphs showing the trends of methanol basis, monthly spreads (9 - 1, 5 - 9), and the number of warehouse receipts from 2020 to 2025. There are also graphs for domestic and international spot prices, and port - inland price spreads during the same period [7][8][9][10] 3.2 Supply - New Capacity: From 2024 to 2025, China added a total of 400 million tons of methanol production capacity in 2024 and 840 million tons in 2025. Overseas, 355 million tons were added in 2024 and 330 million tons are expected to be added in 2025 [23] - Maintenance: Multiple domestic methanol plants had maintenance in 2025, with a total affected capacity of 854 million tons, resulting in an actual total loss of 1.74504 million tons [25] - Production and Capacity Utilization: From October 3 - 9, 2025, China's methanol production was 2.032905 million tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 89.59%, a 5.36% week - on - week increase. Next week, production is expected to be around 2.0402 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate is expected to be 89.91% [4] - Import - related: There are graphs showing the trends of China's monthly methanol import volume, import cost, weekly arrival volume, and import profit from 2020 to 2025 [37][38][39][40] - Cost and Profit: There are graphs showing the production costs and profits of different methanol production processes (coal - based, coke oven gas - based, natural gas - based) in different regions from 2020 to 2025 [42][43][44][47][48][49] 3.3 Demand - Downstream Capacity Utilization: The capacity utilization rates of methanol downstream products such as methanol - to - olefins, dimethyl ether, formaldehyde, glacial acetic acid, MTBE, etc., show different trends from 2020 to 2025 [52][53][54][55] - Downstream Profit: There are graphs showing the production profits of methanol downstream products (MTO, formaldehyde, MTBE, glacial acetic acid, etc.) in different regions from 2020 to 2025 [59][60][63][64][65] - Procurement Volume: There are graphs showing the procurement volumes of methanol by downstream industries (MTO, traditional downstream) in different regions from 2020 to 2025 [67][68][69][70][72][73][74][75] 3.4 Inventory - Factory Inventory: There are graphs showing the trends of China's weekly methanol factory inventory and the inventory in different regions (East China, Northwest China, Inner Mongolia) from 2018 to 2025 [82][83][84][85] - Port Inventory: There are graphs showing the trends of China's weekly methanol port inventory and the inventory in different regions (Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Guangdong) from 2018 to 2025 [88][89][90][91]