能源化工合成橡胶周度报告-20251012

Report Overview - The report is a weekly report on synthetic rubber and butadiene by Guotai Junan Futures, dated October 12, 2025 [1] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report 2. Core Views - Synthetic rubber is expected to operate weakly in the short - term due to the resonance of fundamentals and macro - sentiment. The supply growth rate of butadiene and synthetic rubber is higher than the demand growth rate, and the inventory pressure is increasing. The escalation of Sino - US trade conflicts may also lead to weak expectations for the cost and demand of synthetic rubber [3][4][5] 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Synthetic Rubber 3.1.1 Supply - In October 2025, the estimated output of Chinese cis - butadiene rubber is about 131,300 tons, a slight increase of 900 tons compared to September. Five sets of devices are planned to be overhauled in the next month, with an annual processing capacity of 420,000 tons/year [5] - Some enterprises have normal operation, while others are under maintenance or restarting. For example, Qilu Petrochemical is under parking maintenance, and Shandong Weite is restarting [45] 3.1.2 Demand - In terms of rigid demand, the overall order performance of tire enterprises in October weakened month - on - month. Affected by EU anti - dumping and continuous rainfall, the demand is weak. Some enterprises had 5 - 8 days of maintenance during the "Double Festival", and the inventory reduction of finished products was slow [5] - In terms of substitution demand, the price difference between NR - BR main contracts is maintained at 1,000 - 1,200 yuan/ton, and the substitution demand remains high [5] 3.1.3 Inventory - As of September 24, 2025, the inventory of domestic cis - butadiene rubber sample enterprises was 32,300 tons, a decrease of 1,400 tons compared to the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 4.21% [5] 3.1.4 Valuation - The static valuation range of cis - butadiene rubber futures fundamentals is 10,500 - 11,300 yuan/ton, and the dynamic valuation range is expected to gradually decline [5] 3.1.5 Strategy - Unilateral: Short at high positions according to the static valuation range of fundamentals. The upper pressure is 11,200 - 11,300 yuan/ton, and the lower support is 10,500 - 10,600 yuan/ton [5] - Cross - variety: The price difference between nr - br fluctuates in the short - term [5] 3.2 Butadiene 3.2.1 Supply - From October 3 - 9, 2025, the estimated weekly output of Chinese butadiene industry sample enterprises was 104,700 tons, an increase of 1,100 tons compared to the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 1.08% [6] - Butadiene production capacity is in a state of continuous expansion, and the expansion speed and amplitude are slightly faster than those of downstream industries [11] 3.2.2 Demand - The operating rates of cis - butadiene rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber remain high, and the demand for butadiene remains at a high level year - on - year. ABS has large inventory pressure, and the demand for butadiene is expected to remain constant. The operating rate of SBS has increased slightly, and the demand for butadiene remains stable [6] 3.2.3 Inventory - From September 18 - 24, 2025, the total inventory of domestic butadiene sample enterprises increased, with a month - on - month increase of 6.72%. The enterprise inventory decreased by 3.44%, and the port inventory increased by 20.13% [6] 3.2.4 Outlook - In the short - term, supply and demand both increase, and the inventory is neutral, so butadiene will fluctuate. In the medium - term, the supply pressure is the main contradiction, and the fundamentals are still weak [6]