策略化选股月报(2025/10):科创板组合9月录得显著收益,10月模型推荐调低价值风格配置-20251012
Huafu Securities·2025-10-12 07:23
  • The report includes six quantitative stock selection strategies: multi-strategy stock selection, extreme style high BETA stock selection, "dividend+" preferred stock strategy, moving average trend strategy, sentiment price-volume strategy, and STAR Market strategy[20][21][22] - Multi-strategy stock selection: This strategy combines four sub-strategies (value stocks, growth stocks, quality stock selection, and distressed stock clearing) using traditional risk parity and momentum-optimized risk parity to adjust weights. The weights are based on the past 12 months' risk characteristics and 80-day momentum rank sorting. In October 2025, the quality stock selection strategy had the highest weight at 35.71%, while the value stock strategy had the lowest at 15.61%[22][23][27] - Extreme style high BETA stock selection: This strategy divides non-ST stocks into four groups (large-cap growth, large-cap value, small-cap growth, small-cap value) based on market capitalization and growth-value criteria. It uses specific factors like low turnover, low volatility, and high dividend yield for large-cap value stocks, and profitability and expected net profit factors for large-cap growth stocks. For small-cap value stocks, it employs low volatility and reversal factors, while for small-cap growth stocks, it uses expected profit growth and turnover rate factors. In October 2025, the large-cap value strategy had the highest weight at 50%, while the small-cap growth strategy had the lowest at 17.29%[45][47][48] - "Dividend+" preferred stock strategy: This strategy enhances traditional dividend strategies by selecting stocks with high dividend yields from the CSI 800 and CSI 1000 indices. It incorporates factors like volatility, ROE, valuation, and profit growth. The October 2025 portfolio included 30 stocks, with an average market capitalization of 1320.14 billion RMB, concentrated in the banking sector (40%) and utilities (16.7%)[75][76][79] - Moving average trend strategy: This strategy uses the relative position of moving averages to represent trend and reversal states. It calculates the trend strength factor as "(20-day moving average - 240-day moving average) / 20-day moving average" and selects stocks from the CSI 800 index. The October 2025 portfolio included 33 stocks, with an average market capitalization of 1794.32 billion RMB, concentrated in the oil and petrochemical sector (29.23%) and communication (19.11%)[107][108][109] - Sentiment price-volume strategy: This strategy combines price-volume resonance factors with market sentiment scoring (LWMA240). It adjusts factor scoring based on sentiment scores and avoids excessive price-volume resonance. The October 2025 portfolio included 50 stocks, with an average market capitalization of 409.69 billion RMB, concentrated in electronics (20%), automotive (16%), and communication (12%)[131][136][137] - STAR Market strategy: This strategy focuses on the STAR Market, emphasizing factors like analyst expectations, cash flow, valuation, volatility, and trend breakthroughs. It excludes stocks with low expectations, high volatility, and high price-to-cash flow ratios. The October 2025 portfolio included 30 stocks, with an average market capitalization of 457.35 billion RMB, concentrated in electronics (76.12%)[156][159][163] - Performance results: - Multi-strategy stock selection: September 2025 absolute return -0.38%, relative return -2.95%; annualized excess return since 2017: 13.68%, IR: 1.55[30][41][44] - Extreme style high BETA stock selection: September 2025 absolute return -3.28%, relative return -5.77%; annualized excess return since 2011: 21.01%, IR: 2.27[62][68][74] - "Dividend+" preferred stock strategy: September 2025 absolute return 0.83%, relative return -1.77%; annualized excess return since 2011: 10.93%, IR: 1.09[85][97][102] - Moving average trend strategy: September 2025 absolute return 0.60%, relative return -1.99%; annualized excess return since 2016: 13.40%, IR: 0.93[116][123][129] - Sentiment price-volume strategy: September 2025 absolute return 1.54%, relative return -1.08%; annualized excess return since 2014: 17.94%, IR: 1.13[143][151][155] - STAR Market strategy: September 2025 absolute return 10.92%, relative return -0.5%; annualized excess return since 2020: 24.62%, IR: 1.28[163][170][175]