铅产业链周度报告-20251012

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead industry is neutral, with a price range of 16,900 - 17,500 yuan/ton [3] 2. Core Viewpoints - The lead market shows both increasing supply and demand, and the price is expected to fluctuate within a range. The overall supply pressure of primary lead is significant, while the demand has a notable phased increase. The domestic lead inventory has decreased, reaching a historically low level for the same period. It is expected that the lead price will remain volatile, and it is advisable to buy on dips. The term spread arbitrage of SHFE lead can be temporarily held [7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Trading Aspects - Price and Spread: The closing price of SHFE lead main contract last week was 17,140 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.18%. The closing price of the night session was also 17,140 yuan/ton, with no change. The LME lead 3-month contract had a closing price of 2,009 dollars/ton last week, a decrease of 0.35%. The LME lead cash-to-3-month spread was -38.22 dollars/ton last Friday, a change of -2.92 dollars/ton compared to the previous week. The spread between recycled lead and primary lead was -25 yuan/ton last Friday, an increase of 50 yuan/ton from the previous week [8] - Inventory: The total inventory of lead in five locations decreased, and the absolute inventory is at a historically low level for the same period. The SHFE lead warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 4,696 tons to 30,068 tons, and the total SHFE lead inventory decreased by 9,293 tons to 39,916 tons. The social inventory decreased by 9,500 tons to 36,900 tons, and the LME lead inventory decreased by 500 tons to 237,000 tons [3][8] - Trading Volume and Open Interest: The trading volume of SHFE lead main contract last week was 36,308 lots, a decrease of 12,967 lots compared to the previous week, and the open interest was 44,795 lots, a decrease of 15,867 lots. The trading volume of LME lead 3-month contract was 13,567 lots, an increase of 6,022 lots, and the open interest was 142,000 lots, an increase of 6,194 lots [8] 3.2 Lead Supply - Lead Concentrate: The processing fee of lead concentrate has been continuously weak. The weekly average spot import TC of 60% grade lead concentrate was -110 dollars/ton. The production of lead concentrate in China, its import volume, consumption, and the inventory in Lianyungang have shown different trends over the years [5][7][27] - Primary and Recycled Lead: The production of primary lead is under pressure, while the profit of recycled lead enterprises has recovered to a profitable level, and the expectation of resuming production has increased. After the maintenance of smelters in regions such as Henan and Inner Mongolia ended, they resumed production, and the operating rate of smelters increased marginally. With the continuous pressure on the price of waste batteries and the presence of smelting profits, some enterprises in regions such as Anhui and Inner Mongolia have started to resume production, and it is expected that the production of recycled lead will increase significantly in the later stage [7] 3.3 Lead Demand - Lead-Acid Batteries: The consumption of lead-acid batteries has improved, the finished product inventory is low, and the operating rate of lead-acid battery enterprises is at a high level for the year [7] - End-Use Markets: The actual consumption of lead has shown different trends over the years, and it is related to the production of end-use products such as automobiles and motorcycles [49]