市场形态周报（20251009-20251010）：本周指数普遍下跌-20251012

• The report utilizes the Heston model to calculate the implied volatility of near-month at-the-money options, which serves as the market's fear index. Implied volatility reflects market participants' expectations of future volatility[7] - The broad-based timing strategy signals indicate a "bullish" outlook for indices such as the ChiNext Index, SSE 50, CSI 800, Wind Microcap Index, CSI 500, CSI 300, Hang Seng Financials, Hang Seng Hong Kong 35, Hang Seng Sustainable Development Enterprises Index, Hang Seng Equal Weight Index, Hang Seng Index, and Hang Seng China Enterprises Index. Other broad-based indices are marked as "neutral"[12][13] - The industry timing strategy is constructed based on the scissors difference ratio of long and short signals for industry index constituent stocks. If no bullish or bearish signals are present on a given day, the respective count is set to zero. If both counts are zero, the scissors difference and its ratio are also zero. This forms the basis for the industry timing strategy. Backtesting results show that the timing model outperforms respective industry indices in all cases, demonstrating excellent historical performance[14] - The industry timing strategy signals indicate a "bullish" outlook for sectors such as home appliances, comprehensive finance, comprehensive, power equipment and new energy, basic chemicals, national defense and military, construction, textiles and apparel, non-ferrous metals, electric utilities, steel, transportation, and coal. Other sectors are marked as "neutral"[16]