国泰君安期货锡周报-20251012

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The recent fluctuations in tin prices are mainly affected by Indonesia's crackdown on illegal tin exports. Although the domestic price may open higher after the holiday, the probability of continuous strengthening is considered low. Attention should be paid to tariff risks [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Transaction Aspect (Price, Spread, Inventory, Funds, Transaction, Position) 1.1 Spot - This week, the LME 0 - 3 was at a discount of $61.99 per ton, and the domestic spot was at a premium of 300 yuan per ton [8][9]. - Overseas premium has declined, with premiums in Baltimore and Taiwan narrowing [14]. 1.2 Spread - This week, the tin monthly structure changed from the previous B structure to the C structure [17][18]. 1.3 Inventory - This week, the domestic social inventory decreased by 104 tons, and the futures inventory decreased by 268 tons [23][24]. - This week, the LME inventory increased by 205 tons, and the ratio of cancelled warrants dropped to 9.96% [29]. 1.4 Funds - As of this Friday, the settled funds for Shanghai tin were 2.04013 billion yuan, and the fund flow in the past 10 days was in an inflow direction [34][35]. 1.5 Transaction and Position - This week, the trading volume and open interest of Shanghai tin slightly decreased, while the open interest slightly increased [36][37]. - This week, the trading volume of LME tin slightly decreased, and the open interest continued to decline [41][42]. 1.6 Position - Inventory Ratio - This week, the position - inventory ratio of Shanghai tin slightly rebounded [46]. 2. Tin Supply (Tin Ore, Refined Tin) 2.1 Tin Ore - In July 2025, the output of tin concentrate was 6,409 tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.63%. In August 2025, 10,267 tons were imported, a year - on - year increase of 16.34%, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 28.61% [50]. - This week, the processing fee for 40% tin ore in Yunnan remained unchanged at 12,000 yuan per ton, and the processing fee for 60% tin ore in Guangxi, Jiangxi, and Hunan decreased to 8,000 yuan per ton. The profitability of tin ore imports slightly rebounded [51]. 2.2 Smelting - In August 2025, the domestic tin ingot output was 15,390 tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.09% [53][54]. - This week, the combined operating rate of Jiangxi and Yunnan provinces slightly rebounded to 29.72% [55]. 2.3 Import - In August 2025, 1,296 tons of domestic tin ingots were imported, 1,640 tons were exported, with a net export of 344 tons. Among them, 501 tons of tin ingots were imported from Indonesia to China. The latest import profitability was - 15,038 yuan per ton [60]. 3. Tin Demand (Tin Products, End - Users) 3.1 Consumption - In August 2025, the apparent consumption of tin ingots was 15,046 tons, and the actual consumption was 15,843 tons [68]. 3.2 Tin Products - This week, the downstream processing fee slightly decreased. The operating rate of monthly solder enterprises rebounded in August to 73.2%. The output and sales of major tin - plated sheet enterprises slightly decreased in July [70]. 3.3 End - User Consumption - In August 2025, the output of end - user products showed mixed performance. The output of integrated circuits decreased in August, while the monthly output of electronics and smartphones increased. In the home appliance sector, the output of air conditioners decreased, while the output of color TVs and washing machines slightly increased [77]. - In August 2025, the consumption of home appliances and new energy decreased month - on - month [79]. - This week, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rebounded, showing the same trend as tin prices [84].