金银周报-20251012

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold and silver are both showing a relatively strong trend. Gold is driven by factors such as the resurgence of the tariff war and various overseas events, while silver is affected by overseas short - squeeze situations and tight spot supplies. The report maintains a positive outlook on the prices of both gold and silver, expecting silver to potentially outperform gold in the medium term [3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Performance - This week, London gold rose by 2.29%, and London silver rose by 6.63%. The gold - silver ratio dropped from 82.2 in the previous week to 79.1. The 10 - year TIPS fell to 1.75%, the 10 - year nominal interest rate fell to 4.05% (2 - year 3.52%), and the US dollar index was recorded at 98.82 [3][4]. - After the holiday, Shanghai gold opened higher, reaching a maximum of 921 yuan/gram, hitting a new record high. COMEX silver reached a maximum of 49.965 US dollars, and London silver reached 51.221 US dollars, breaking historical highs [3][4]. 3.2 Price and Spread Analysis - Overseas Price - Spread: This week, the spread between London spot and COMEX gold主力 fell to - 17.655 US dollars/ounce, and the spread between COMEX gold continuous and COMEX gold主力 was - 49.3 US dollars/ounce. The spread between London spot and COMEX silver主力 rose to 2.611 US dollars/ounce, and the spread between COMEX silver continuous and COMEX silver主力 was - 0.12 US dollars/ounce [10][13]. - Domestic Price - Spread: This week, the gold futures - spot spread was - 3.82 yuan/gram, at the lower end of the historical range; the silver futures - spot spread was - 23 yuan/gram, at the upper end of the historical range. The gold monthly spread was 8.14 yuan/gram, at the upper end of the historical range; the silver monthly spread was 55 yuan/gram, at the upper end of the historical range [17][19][23][28]. 3.3 Inventory and Position Analysis - Inventory: This week, COMEX gold inventory decreased by 0.17 million ounces, and the registered warehouse receipt ratio rose to 53.2%. COMEX silver inventory decreased by 9.41 million ounces to 522 million ounces, and the registered warehouse receipt ratio dropped to 35.1%. Gold futures inventory increased by 5094 kilograms, and silver futures inventory increased by 12.21 tons to 1192 tons [37][39][42]. - Position: This week, the non - commercial net long position of COMEX CFTC gold increased slightly, and the non - commercial net long position of silver increased slightly. The gold SPDR ETF inventory increased by 1.42 tons, and the silver SLV ETF inventory decreased by 289 tons [44][50][52]. 3.4 Core Drivers of Gold - This week, the correlation between gold and real interest rates returned, and 10YTIPS continued to decline [62]. - The report also analyzed factors such as inflation, retail sales performance, non - farm employment performance, industrial manufacturing cycle, financial conditions, economic surprise index, inflation surprise index, and the probability of Fed rate cuts [67][70][75][77][79].