中美贸易冲突下各品种行情解读

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report analyzes the impact of the Sino-US trade conflict on various investment varieties, suggesting investors adjust their positions according to the market situation and the development of the trade war, and provides corresponding option strategies for different varieties [3][4][6]. 3. Summary by Variety Stocks - Hong Kong Stocks: If the trade war is less severe than expected, reduce short - term positions in the Hang Seng Technology Index and wait for better entry points. If it worsens, adopt a barbell strategy of technology (AI/innovative drugs/autonomous control) + dividends and buy technology assets at the right time [3]. - US Stocks: Short - term fluctuations are inevitable, but the decline will be less than in April. Reduce short - term positions and wait for better opportunities to enter the US technology stock market [3]. Futures - Treasury Bond Futures: Affected by the intensification of the trade war, Treasury bonds may open higher on Monday, but the upward trend may not last. Maintain a view of bottom - side oscillating and bearish [3]. - Stock Index Futures: The market has TACO trading expectations, but A - shares are overvalued, especially technology stocks with bubbles, and there is a risk of liquidity. The key lies in the development of the trade war and the government's willingness and strength to maintain stability. Consider buying short - term out - of - the - money put options and November call options [3]. Commodities - Copper: Prices are under pressure. If the trade conflict worsens, there may be further decline. The supply of copper raw materials is tight, which will be transmitted to the smelting end. Build positions by selling out - of - the - money put options on the far - month [3]. - Aluminum: Aluminum prices may be affected by short - term negative sentiment, but the long - term trend is bullish. Consider constructing a collar strategy by buying put options and selling out - of - the - money call options [3]. - Energy and Chemicals - European Routes: The 2510 contract may decline by 2 - 5%, the 2512 contract by about 10%, and the 2602 contract has a risk of significant decline [5]. - Crude Oil: There is a 5 - 6% decline in price, and a 10% decline in the most pessimistic scenario. Consider buying out - of - the - money put options for short - term speculation [5]. - Chemicals: The impact is mainly on ethane and propane. Consider bearish spreads and wait for the market to stabilize before selling options [5]. - Agricultural Products: Beans and some domestic - priced fresh products are strong, while cotton is weak. Consider buying call options on beans [5]. - Black Metals: The direct impact of the trade war on the fundamentals is small, but the valuation may decline. The decline amplitude may be smaller than that of other sectors [5]. - New Energy and Related Metals - Lithium Carbonate: The price may decline by 5%. Build positions by selling out - of - the - money put options and consider buying deep - out - of - the - money put options for tail protection [6]. - Nickel: The price is under pressure and may fluctuate. Sell out - of - the - money call options and buy out - of - the - money put options to construct a collar strategy [6]. - Stainless Steel: The price is expected to be weak, and it is advisable to short at high prices with a light position [6]. - Industrial Silicon: The price is expected to decline by 4 - 5%. Sell at - the - money call options and buy put options to construct a collar strategy [6]. - Polysilicon: The price may decline by 5 - 6%. Sell at - the - money call options and buy more out - of - the - money call options to construct an inverse spread option [6].