聚酯数据周报-20251012

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The polyester industry is facing a complex situation with cost collapses, weak trends, and uncertainties in supply and demand due to factors such as trade policies and seasonal variations [3][4][5]. - There are opportunities in various trading strategies, including short positions, calendar spreads, and cross - commodity spreads for PX, PTA, and MEG [3][4][5]. Summary by Related Catalogs PX Valuation and Profit - PX valuation is affected by demand negative feedback, cost support is weak, and the price is declining. The PXN has weakened significantly, and the PX - MX spread has also decreased [16][23][42]. - Overseas oil product cracking spreads are strong, supporting overseas aromatic hydrocarbon valuations. However, the PX - MX spread has weakened due to the recovery of Asian MX blending oil [30][42]. - The PXN has fallen to 230 (+8) US dollars/ton, and the polyester chain price is weak [80]. Supply and Demand - The domestic PX operating rate is at a historical high, with a current operating rate of 87.4% (+0.8%). Next week, the 1 million - ton Wushi Petrochemical plant will be under maintenance, and the operating rate will decline [3][49]. - In September, the PX apparent consumption was 4.04 million tons, and the loss was 377,000 tons [50]. - In August, PX imports rebounded to 880,000 tons, with a significant increase from South Korea. China's imports from Saudi Arabia have remained low [56][58]. - In Japan, some PX plants restarted in September, and South Korea's Hanwha plant has restarted [62][63]. - In September, the PX inventory decreased to 3.92 million tons (+3) [65]. PTA Valuation and Profit - The 1 - 5 calendar spread of PTA is in a backwardation situation, and the basis has declined. The processing fee is at a low level, weakening the plant's willingness to start operations [72][78]. - The PXN has fallen, and the polyester chain price is weak [80]. Supply and Demand - The PTA operating rate is maintained at around 75%, currently at 74.4% (-2.4%). In October, there is a de - stocking pattern, mainly in the western and southern regions, but the supply in the East China spot market is still sufficient [82]. - In September, the PTA output was 6.01 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.2%. The container freight rate has declined, which is beneficial for exports [83]. - In August, PTA exports were 300,000 tons, and the export profit has decreased [85]. - PTA inventory is at a low level [101]. - The Morgan Qiankun PTA position has turned short again, and the short positions of foreign capital seats have increased to 169,000 (+43,000) lots [105][107]. MEG Valuation and Profit - The MEG price trend is declining, and the basis remains high. MEG's relative valuations against ethylene oxide, styrene, and plastics have all rebounded to the highest levels of the year [118][122]. - The coal - based MEG profit has dropped to 218 yuan/ton (-75), and the naphtha - based MEG profit is - 891 yuan/ton (+15) [125]. Supply and Demand - The MEG operating rate is at a historical high, currently at 75% (+2%). Some plants will be under maintenance next week, and the overall load is expected to decline slightly. The high - point of the overall load in October is expected to have passed [128]. - In August, MEG imports were about 590,000 tons, and they are expected to rebound in September [130]. - Many overseas MEG plants are under maintenance, and the European arbitrage window is gradually closing [136][139]. - The MEG port inventory has increased marginally [144].