能源化工 C3产业链周度报告-20251012

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - LPG: Short - term weak operation. Although PDH profit has improved significantly due to the weakening of propane, the current tense Sino - US trade relationship and strong market wait - and - see sentiment make it difficult to fully realize demand support. However, considering that the PG main contract has reached a new low and civil demand is gradually improving, the downward space is expected to be limited [3]. - Propylene: Demand is weakening, and it will run weakly in the short term. Next week, although the supply may shrink due to the expected maintenance of PDH devices, the demand will weaken as some PO and acrylic acid devices plan to stop for maintenance, so the upward momentum of prices is limited [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs LPG Part Price & Spread - Domestic Spot and Basis: There are significant differences in the price changes of civil gas in different regions. The prices of Shandong, East China, and South China have changed by - 100, 21, and - 50 yuan/ton respectively on a weekly basis. For other LPG and basis, the prices of Shandong ether - after, East China import, and South China import have also changed, and the basis of civil gas in different regions has also shown different trends [7]. - Regional Quotations, Premiums, and Freight: The freight from the US to the Far East has decreased, the FEI premium has weakened, and there is an arbitrage space [18]. - Propane Price: It has weakened significantly [28]. Supply - International Shipment: The US, Canada, Qatar, and other countries' LPG shipment volumes have different degrees of changes. For example, the US - China propane shipment volume (weekly) MA4 has decreased by 1 compared with the previous period [38]. - Domestic Supply: The total LPG commodity volume is 54.3 tons (+0.6%), of which the civil gas commodity volume is 21.8 tons (+1.0%), and the ether - after C4 commodity volume remains at a high level. The propane commodity volume has decreased, and the imported vessel arrivals have decreased by 6.7 tons [60][69]. Demand & Inventory - Chemical Demand: The operating rates of PDH and MTBE have decreased slightly [73]. - Domestic Refinery Inventory: The ether - after inventory is at a high level, and the civil gas is accumulating inventory. The inventory of LPG refineries in different regions has different trends, such as the inventory of civil gas refineries in Shandong has increased by 1.29% on a weekly basis [82]. - Terminal Imported Cargo Inventory: The inventory in East China and Shandong has decreased from a high level, while the inventory in South China has increased slightly [92]. Propylene Part Price & Spread - Upstream Price: The prices of Brent, WTI, and other upstream products have decreased to varying degrees on a weekly basis. For example, Brent has decreased by 4.97 US dollars/bbl, with a weekly average change of - 4.73% [103]. - Propylene Price: The international/US - dollar price has slightly corrected from a high level, and the domestic/Shandong market is relatively strong, while the East China price has declined, and the regional spread has widened [106][114]. - Downstream Price/Profit: The prices and profits of downstream products such as PP particles, PP powder, and PO have changed. For example, the price of PP particles has decreased by 63 yuan/ton on a weekly basis, and the profit has decreased by 53 yuan/ton [105]. Balance Sheet - Supply: In October 2025, the total domestic propylene supply is expected to be 550 tons, with a weighted operating rate of 80.5%, an increase of 7.64% compared with the previous month. The supply from different sources such as main refineries, local refineries, and PDH devices has different degrees of changes [127]. - Demand: In October 2025, the total domestic propylene demand is expected to be 544 tons, with a weighted operating rate of 79.5%, an increase of 5.95% compared with the previous month. The demand from downstream products such as polypropylene particles, polypropylene powder, and epoxy propane has different degrees of changes [128].