若市场“高切低”，建筑板块买什么？

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Increase" rating for the construction decoration industry, indicating a potential for allocation in the fourth quarter [6][9]. Core Viewpoints - The construction sector is expected to benefit from a "high-cut-low" market style in the fourth quarter, driven by factors such as the need for institutional portfolio adjustments and a shift in market risk preferences due to rising trade tensions [1][11]. - The construction sector has significantly lagged behind other sectors, with a year-to-date increase of only 10.1%, ranking 19th among 30 industries, compared to the Shanghai Composite Index's 16.3% and the ChiNext Index's 45.4% [1][11]. - The current price-to-book (PB) ratio for the construction sector is 0.84, placing it in the 18th percentile over the past decade, indicating historical low valuations [1][11]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The construction sector has underperformed this year, with a cumulative increase of 10.1%, significantly lower than major indices [1][11]. - The sector's PB ratio is currently at 0.84, which is historically low [1][11]. Earnings Outlook - The performance of major construction state-owned enterprises (SOEs) is showing signs of marginal improvement, with a total new order signing of 77,859 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 0.2% [2][17]. - The second quarter of 2025 saw new orders of 38,900 billion yuan, reflecting a 2% increase year-on-year and a 4 percentage point acceleration from the first quarter [2][17]. Dividend Yield and Valuation - Several leading construction SOEs have attractive dividend yields, with expected yields exceeding 3% for companies like China State Construction (4.9%) and China Railway Construction (3.6%) [3][24]. - The report highlights low valuations for key companies, recommending investments in those with strong dividend yields and potential for revaluation [4][25]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on undervalued SOEs such as China Metallurgical Group and China Railway Group, which have significant revaluation potential [4][25]. - Other recommended stocks include China State Construction, China Communications Construction, and China Railway Construction, all of which exhibit low PB ratios [4][25].