9月金融数据前瞻：社融增速回落，货币活化延续：流动性观察第117期

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Buy" [1] Core Insights - The report indicates a continued decline in social financing growth, with a forecast of new RMB loans in September expected to be around 1.3 to 1.5 trillion, a year-on-year decrease of 900 to 2900 billion [3][4] - The overall credit reading is expected to show a year-on-year decrease, with growth rates around 6.6% to 6.7% [4][5] - The report highlights that corporate credit is expected to increase, while retail loans are anticipated to remain weak, particularly in the housing market [6][8] Summary by Sections Credit Market Overview - The report predicts that September will see a seasonal increase in credit issuance, but the intensity of this increase is expected to be modest [3][4] - Social financing is projected to be between 3 to 3.2 trillion, with a growth rate of 8.5% to 8.6%, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of approximately 5200 to 7200 billion [14][16] Corporate Lending - Corporate short-term loans are expected to increase, supported by improved business conditions, while medium to long-term loans may still see a year-on-year decline due to ongoing deflationary pressures [6][7] - The report notes that the issuance of government bonds is nearing its end, which may alleviate some pressure on corporate loan readings [7] Retail Lending - The housing market is showing mixed signals, with major developers reporting a sales increase, but overall sales remain at historically low levels [8] - Non-housing loans are expected to face challenges due to weak consumer sentiment and limited credit expansion among small businesses and individual entrepreneurs [9][8] Monetary Conditions - The report anticipates an improvement in monetary activation, with M1 growth expected to continue its upward trend, while M2 growth may slightly decline due to high base effects from the previous year [17][19]