招商交通运输行业周报：中美关税博弈加剧，航运节后运价回升-20251012

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment rating for the transportation industry, highlighting potential rebound opportunities in various sectors [4]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the recovery of shipping rates post-holiday, the impact of US-China tariff disputes on shipping prices, and the potential for price recovery in the aviation sector due to increased travel demand [1][14]. - It identifies key investment opportunities in infrastructure and logistics, particularly in companies with attractive dividend yields and stable earnings [16][18]. Shipping - Post-holiday shipping rates have shown recovery, with the SCFI for the US East route increasing by 2.8% to $2452/FEU, and the European route rising by 10% to $1068/TEU [12]. - The report notes that the US-China tariff disputes are causing short-term fluctuations in shipping rates, particularly affecting oil tankers [14]. - Recommendations include focusing on companies like COSCO Shipping Energy and China Merchants Energy due to expected benefits from these market dynamics [14]. Infrastructure - The report indicates that highway stocks have fallen to a dividend yield of over 5%, suggesting potential for a rebound if market sentiment shifts [16]. - Weekly data shows a 27.6% decrease in truck traffic, while rail freight increased by 0.95% [15][16]. - Key recommended stocks include China Merchants Highway, Anhui Expressway, and Qingdao Port [16]. Express Delivery - The express delivery sector is experiencing a stable growth rate, with a 12.3% year-on-year increase in business volume in August 2025 [17]. - The report highlights the "anti-involution" policy that is expected to ease price competition and improve valuations in the sector [18]. - Recommended stocks include ZTO Express, YTO Express, and SF Express, with a focus on price performance during the peak season [18]. Aviation - The aviation sector is seeing a recovery in passenger numbers, with a 3.9% year-on-year increase during the holiday period [19]. - The report suggests that the low base effect in Q4 could lead to price recovery opportunities for airlines [19]. - Recommended airlines include Air China, China Southern Airlines, and Spring Airlines [19]. Logistics - The logistics sector is showing signs of improvement, with a slight increase in cross-border transport volumes and stable short-haul freight rates [21]. - The report notes that the logistics market is benefiting from increased demand and improved operational efficiencies [21].