全球资产配置每周聚焦（20251003-20251010）：美政府“关门”难解，欧美股市多数调整-20251012

Market Overview - The U.S. federal government has been shut down for over 10 days due to the Senate's rejection of funding bills, impacting hundreds of thousands of federal employees[3] - Most European and American stock markets experienced declines, while Asian markets benefited from expectations of U.S. Federal Reserve rate cuts[3] Fixed Income and Currency - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield decreased by 8 basis points to 4.05%, while the U.S. dollar index rose by 1.13% to 98.8, remaining below 100[3][10] - Significant inflows into U.S. fixed income funds amounted to $182.7 billion this week[16] Equity Market Trends - Foreign capital inflow into the Chinese stock market was recorded at $3.53 billion, with active foreign funds seeing a slight outflow of $0.40 billion and passive funds inflowing $3.93 billion[3] - The S&P 500 and DAX indices are at high valuation percentiles, with PE percentiles at 94.7% and 93.1% respectively, indicating elevated market valuations[3] Commodity Performance - COMEX gold prices increased by 2.71% due to the government shutdown and Fed rate cut expectations, while Brent crude oil prices fell by 3.78%[3] Risk Indicators - The S&P 500 closed at 6552.51, below its 20-day moving average, with an increase in implied volatility indicating a cautious market sentiment[3] - The put-call ratio for the S&P 500 rose to 1.19, reflecting increased hedging demand[3] Economic Data Insights - U.S. manufacturing PMI and industrial output showed marginal improvement, while non-manufacturing PMI and inflation expectations weakened[3] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in October is at 98.30%, up from 96.20% the previous week[3]