宏观情绪转承压，镍价低位震荡不锈钢：宏观与现实共振施压，下方成本限制弹性

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Nickel: The macro - sentiment has turned bearish, and nickel prices are expected to oscillate at a low level. The contradiction between macro - sentiment and refined nickel inventory accumulation, along with potential uncertainties from Indonesia, will put pressure on nickel prices [4]. - Stainless steel: Macro and real - world factors are jointly pressuring prices, but the cost floor limits the downside elasticity. It is expected to oscillate weakly next week [5]. - Industrial silicon: Inventory has shifted to accumulation, and there are expectations of weakening supply - demand. The supply is expected to exceed demand, and the trading strategy is to sell high [27][32]. - Polysilicon: A weekend industry meeting was held, and policy logic still exists. There are policy expectations, and investors can look for buying opportunities after the market sentiment is released [27][33]. - Lithium carbonate: Macro factors are suppressing prices, and it is expected to operate weakly. The price is expected to be in the range of 70,000 - 73,000 yuan/ton [62][65]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel Fundamental Analysis - Nickel: Macro - sentiment and refined nickel inventory accumulation are pressuring prices. Although non - standard nickel fundamentals have marginally improved, the inventory accumulation contradiction in refined nickel remains. Indonesian news may increase uncertainties [4]. - Stainless steel: Macro and real - world factors are pressuring demand, and the cost provides a floor. However, the short - term price may oscillate weakly due to factors such as production capacity and inventory [5]. Inventory Tracking - Refined nickel: Chinese refined nickel social inventory increased by 5,190 tons to 45,630 tons. LME nickel inventory increased by 7,254 tons to 237,378 tons [8]. - New energy: There were changes in the inventory days of SMM nickel sulfate upstream, downstream, and integrated production lines in October [8]. - Nickel - stainless steel: SMM nickel - iron inventory was stable in September, and stainless - steel factory and social inventories changed [8]. Market News - Indonesia has taken measures such as taking over part of the WBN park and suspending the production of some mining companies, which may affect nickel - ore supply [9]. - The US may impose an additional 100% tariff on Chinese goods from November 1, which may impact stainless - steel exports [10]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Price Trends - Industrial silicon: The futures price oscillated, and the spot price declined. The SMM - reported Xinjiang 99 silicon price was 8,850 yuan/ton (down 150 yuan/ton month - on - month), and the Inner Mongolia 99 silicon price was 9,000 yuan/ton (down 200 yuan/ton month - on - month) [27]. - Polysilicon: The futures price declined, and the spot price was stable, with the Friday closing price at 48,965 yuan/ton [27]. Supply - Demand Fundamentals - Industrial silicon: Supply: Xinjiang factories are resuming production, and Southwest China may reduce production in the future. October production is expected to increase to 440,000 tons. Inventory has accumulated. Demand: Downstream polysilicon and silicone support consumption, but overall demand improvement is limited [28][29]. - Polysilicon: Supply: Production is expected to increase in October and then decline. Inventory has accumulated. Demand: Silicon - wafer production is expected to decrease in October, and the next restocking is expected in mid - October [29][31]. Market Outlook - Industrial silicon: The supply - demand situation is weakening, and the trading strategy is to sell high. Pay attention to the warehouse receipt volume [32]. - Polysilicon: There are policy expectations. After the market sentiment is released, look for buying opportunities. Focus on the restocking situation in mid - October [33]. Lithium Carbonate Price Trends - The futures contract price oscillated. The 2511 contract closed at 72,740 yuan/ton (down 1,300 yuan/ton week - on - week), and the 2601 contract closed at 72,900 yuan/ton (down 1,100 yuan/ton week - on - week). The spot price was 73,550 yuan/ton (down 200 yuan/ton week - on - week) [62]. Supply - Demand Fundamentals - Supply: Weekly production reached a new high of 20,635 tons. Zangge Mining obtained new mining rights [63]. - Demand: The short - term spot market is strong, but macro - level export controls and potential US tariffs may impact demand [63]. - Inventory: Weekly inventory decreased to 134,800 tons, with upstream inventory accumulating during the holiday and downstream and trading - link inventory decreasing [63]. Market Outlook - The price is expected to operate weakly, with the futures price in the range of 70,000 - 73,000 yuan/ton. The trading strategy is to focus on positive spreads for cross - period trading and increase the proportion of selling hedging [65][66][67].