有色及贵金属周报合集-20251012

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold: The resurgence of the tariff war has led to increased risk aversion, potentially pushing up the gold price. After the interest rate cut in September, the pricing logic of gold has shifted from α-driven to β-driven, opening up upward space for long - term narratives [8][9]. - Silver: The price of silver is expected to remain strong. Although there may be resistance around the $50 level, it still has the opportunity to outperform gold in the medium term. Attention should be paid to the overseas short - squeeze situation [8][10]. - Copper: Trade risks have become more apparent, supply disruptions have intensified, and price fluctuations have widened. The market is currently bearish, but the tightening supply - demand fundamentals may provide opportunities for long - term bullish positions [89][95]. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver Price Performance - This week, London gold rose 2.29%, and London silver rose 6.63%. The gold - silver ratio dropped from 82.2 to 79.1. The 10 - year TIPS fell to 1.75%, and the 10 - year nominal interest rate fell to 4.05%. The US dollar index was 98.82 [9]. - After the holiday, Shanghai gold opened higher, reaching a maximum of 921 yuan/gram, hitting a new record high [9]. Market Drivers - Overseas events during the holiday, such as the US government shutdown, French political turmoil, China's continuous increase in gold reserves, and Tether's plan to hoard gold - backed tokens, have all contributed to the rise in gold prices [9]. - Trump's resumption of the trade war over the weekend has increased market volatility, but the impact on gold has been relatively stable [9]. - For silver, the continuous inversion of the spot - futures price difference overseas, high lease rates, and tight inventory have supported the price [10]. Transaction - related Data - Price Difference: Overseas, the London spot - COMEX gold主力 spread fell to - 17.655 dollars/ounce, and the COMEX gold continuous - COMEX gold主力 spread was - 49.3 dollars/ounce. The London spot - COMEX silver主力 spread rose to 2.611 dollars/ounce, and the COMEX silver continuous - COMEX silver主力 spread was - 0.12 dollars/ounce. Domestically, the gold spot - futures spread was - 3.82 yuan/gram, at the lower end of the historical range; the silver spot - futures spread was - 23 yuan/gram, at the upper end of the historical range. The gold monthly spread was 8.14 yuan/gram, and the silver monthly spread was 55 yuan/gram, both at the upper end of the historical range [16][19][23][25][29][34]. - Inventory and Position: COMEX gold inventory decreased by 0.17 million ounces, and the registered warrant ratio rose to 53.2%. COMEX silver inventory decreased by 9.41 million ounces to 522 million ounces, and the registered warrant ratio dropped to 35.1%. Gold futures inventory increased by 5094 kilograms, and silver futures inventory increased by 12.21 tons to 1192 tons. COMEX CFTC non - commercial net long positions in gold and silver both increased slightly. Gold SPDR ETF inventory increased by 1.42 tons, and silver SLV ETF inventory decreased by 289 tons [44][46][49][51][57][59]. Copper Price and Market Situation - The copper market is currently bearish, with a price range of 80,000 - 85,000 yuan/ton. The VIX index has risen rapidly, indicating increased market uncertainty [89][91]. - Copper concentrate spot TC is weak, and smelting losses have widened [93]. Market Drivers - The US tariff increase has put pressure on copper prices, but the tightening supply fundamentals may limit the decline. Major copper mines such as Grasberg have supply disruptions, and recycled copper supply is also tight. China's refined copper production is expected to decline in October [95]. - Total global copper inventory increased this week, with a significant increase in domestic inventory. However, as the supply - demand imbalance intensifies, there is still a possibility of inventory reduction in the future [95]. Transaction - related Data - Volatility: The volatility of Shanghai copper, international copper, LME copper, and COMEX copper has all increased. COMEX copper price volatility is around 22%, and Shanghai copper volatility has risen to around 25% [102]. - Term Spread: The term structure of Shanghai copper has weakened, and the LME copper spot discount has narrowed. COMEX copper has changed from a near - end C structure to a B structure [104][106]. - Position: The positions of Shanghai copper, international copper, LME copper, and COMEX copper have all increased, with Shanghai copper positions increasing by 32,200 lots to 578,300 lots [107]. - Fund and Industry Position: LME commercial short net positions have increased, while CFTC non - commercial long net positions have decreased slightly [113].