四季度：政策对冲会重现吗？

Group 1 - The report highlights that the fourth quarter is traditionally a high-frequency window for fiscal policy to intensify, especially under weak domestic demand conditions, where the pressure to meet annual economic targets becomes more pronounced [2][8][10] - The cumulative GDP growth for the first three quarters is projected to exceed the annual target, suggesting that the pressure to implement large-scale counter-cyclical policies in the fourth quarter is lower than in previous years [10][11] - The report indicates that even if the economic growth continues to moderate in the fourth quarter, as long as it does not deviate significantly from the central level, the growth rate is expected to remain stable within a reasonable range [11][18] Group 2 - The establishment of 500 billion new policy financial tools at the end of the third quarter is noted as a significant measure to support project initiation in the fourth quarter, which could leverage local matching investments and potentially create a multiplier effect of around one trillion [3][11] - The report suggests that the reliance on large-scale additional stimulus is decreasing, indicating that the fiscal policy's focus may shift towards consolidating the economic fundamentals rather than introducing substantial new measures [11][18] - The report emphasizes that the short-term market dynamics are likely to be driven more by risk appetite and market microstructure rather than significant policy changes, with a notable recovery in market sentiment observed [4][14][18] Group 3 - The report discusses the potential for emotional recovery and risk preference resonance in the market, suggesting that the current low sentiment levels may lead to a phase of recovery, although this is subject to external shocks or internal sentiment weakening [4][14] - It is noted that the market's microstructure is currently similar to that of April, with sentiment indicators at a two-year low, reflecting a comprehensive pricing of negative factors [14][18] - The report concludes that while there is some room for fiscal policy intervention, the urgency is not as pronounced as in previous years, and the market's mid-term expectations have shifted significantly compared to earlier in the year [18]