甲醇周报：关注伊朗船货靠港影响-20251012

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The methanol market is affected by factors such as Sino - US trade conflicts and Iranian cargo docking. The port market may be short - term boosted due to the potential impact on Iranian cargo docking at major ports in Jiangsu. However, the inventory inflection point has not appeared yet, and the future arrival volume change depends on the impact of Iranian cargo and the progress of Sino - US trade conflicts. The coal - based methanol production rate in the inland area has rebounded, and the traditional downstream industries have seen a decline in production rates to varying degrees [1][2][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Supply - Port supply: The overseas methanol operating rate is 73.34% (unchanged). The weekly import volume of methanol in China is 460,500 tons (+71,400 tons), with 407,200 tons arriving in East China (+77,300 tons) and 53,300 tons in South China (-5,900 tons) [1] - Inland supply: China's methanol operating rate is 89.53% (+4.50%), including a coal - based methanol operating rate of 84.16% (+1.04%), a natural - gas methanol operating rate of 50.79% (unchanged), and a coke - oven gas methanol operating rate of 60.79% (-0.19%). The operating rates in different regions vary, with the Northwest at 93.90% (+5.50%), North China at 70.92% (+9.67%), Central China at 81.47% (+3.85%), East China at 84.83% (+1.16%), and Southwest at 84.61% (-1.09%) [1] Demand - Port demand: The average weekly pick - up volume in Taicang is 3,389 tons per day (unchanged). The weekly procurement volume of MTO enterprises in East China is 314,700 tons (+286,100 tons), and the operating rate of externally - purchased methanol MTO enterprises is 86.28% (+3.82%) [1] - Inland demand: The pending order volume of methanol enterprises is 115,240 tons (-157,782 tons). The raw material procurement volume of traditional downstream sample enterprises is 18,720 tons (-17,580 tons). The operating rates of formaldehyde, acetic acid, MTBE export factories, and dimethyl ether are 34.49% (-5.56%), 82.96% (-0.74%), 64.12% (-0.39%), and 4.98% (-1.27%) respectively. The weekly procurement volume of MTO enterprises in the Northwest is 46,200 tons (-32,300 tons), and the operating rate of MTO enterprises is 93.19% (+1.30%) [2] Inventory - Port inventory: The total methanol port inventory is 1,543,230 tons (+51,040 tons), including 793,000 tons in Jiangsu (+14,000 tons), 287,500 tons in Zhejiang (+33,800 tons), 300,000 tons in Guangdong (+7,000 tons), and 162,730 tons in Fujian (-3,760 tons). The methanol inventory of MTO sample enterprises is 660,000 tons (-40,000 tons), and the methanol inventory of downstream sample enterprises is 170,700 tons (-15,900 tons) [2] - Inland inventory: The methanol factory inventory in the Chinese inland area is 339,400 tons (+19,460 tons), including 204,000 tons in the Northwest (-4,000 tons), 29,500 tons in North China (+10,500 tons), 12,900 tons in Central China (-2,550 tons), 67,850 tons in East China (+12,050 tons), and 23,500 tons in Southwest (+3,500 tons) [2] Market Analysis - Port: Sino - US trade conflicts intensify the risk of sanctions on Iranian cargo. The docking of Iranian cargo at major ports in Jiangsu may be affected, which short - term boosts the port market. However, the inventory inflection point has not appeared, and the Iranian operating rate is still high. The future arrival volume change mainly depends on the impact of Iranian cargo and the progress of Sino - US trade conflicts. Although the Sino - US trade war drags down the chemical industry, methanol is relatively resistant to decline among chemical varieties [3] - Inland: The coal - based methanol operating rate rebounds again, and the inland inventory is rising from a low level, weakening the support for the port. The operating rates of traditional downstream industries such as acetic acid, MTBE, and formaldehyde have declined to varying degrees [3] Strategy - Unilateral: No strategy provided - Inter - period: Go long on the spread of MA2601 - MA2605 when it is low - Inter - commodity: Go short on the spread of PP01 - 3MA01 when it is high [4]