聚烯烃周报：聚烯烃节后大幅累库，价格承压偏弱-20251012

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Report's Core View - After the holiday, polyolefins experienced significant inventory accumulation, leading to price pressure and a weak trend. The decline in crude oil prices weakened the cost support for polyethylene, and the commissioning of new plants increased supply pressure, driving the downward trend of polyolefins. For PE, the supply is expected to increase significantly, while the downstream demand is weak, and the cost support is also weakening. For PP, it is affected by the weakening of crude oil and propane prices, with a supply increase expected and weak demand, and the cost support is also weak [3]. - The recommended strategies are to cautiously short - hedge L, expect PP to fluctuate weakly; conduct reverse spreads for L01 - L05 and PP01 - PP05; and short the spread of PP01 - 3MA01 when it is high [4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market News and Important Data - Price and Basis: The closing price of the L main contract was 7037 yuan/ton (-40), and that of the PP main contract was 6722 yuan/ton (-23). The LL spot price in North China was 7000 yuan/ton (+0), in East China was 7100 yuan/ton (-10), and the PP spot price in East China was 6670 yuan/ton (-10). The LL basis in North China was -37 yuan/ton (+40), in East China was 73 yuan/ton (+10), and the PP basis in East China was -42 yuan/ton (-47) [1]. - Upstream Supply: The PE operating rate was 83.9% (+1.9%), and the PP operating rate was 77.7% (+1.1%) [1]. - Production Profit: The PE oil - based production profit was 542.8 yuan/ton (+157.6), the PP oil - based production profit was -127.2 yuan/ton (+157.6), and the PDH - based PP production profit was -99.0 yuan/ton (-270.1) [1]. - Import and Export: The LL import profit was 10.8 yuan/ton (+52.2), the PP import profit was -547.8 yuan/ton (-73.5), and the PP export profit was 17.5 US dollars/ton (+9.1) [2]. - Downstream Demand: The PE downstream agricultural film operating rate was 35.6% (+2.8%), the PE downstream packaging film operating rate was 52.9% (+0.5%), the PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate was 44.3% (+0.4%), and the PP downstream BOPP film operating rate was 60.7% (+0.5%) [2]. 3.2 Market Analysis - PE: After the holiday, the inventory of major plastic producers accumulated significantly. The decline in crude oil weakened the cost support, and the commissioning of new plants increased supply pressure. The supply is expected to increase with the commissioning of a 500,000 - ton LDPE plant and the restart of previously shut - down plants, along with concentrated arrivals of imported resources. The downstream demand in October was less than expected, and the cost support was weakened due to the OPEC+ production increase [3]. - PP: After the holiday, the decline of PP was obvious, affected by the weakening of crude oil and propane prices. The supply is expected to increase as multiple plants restarted, and the PDH plant profit recovered. The demand was less than expected during the "Golden September and Silver October" season, and the cost support was weak [3]. 3.3 Strategy - Unilateral: Cautiously short - hedge L; expect PP to fluctuate weakly [4]. - Inter - period: Conduct reverse spreads for L01 - L05 and PP01 - PP05 [4]. - Inter - commodity: Short the spread of PP01 - 3MA01 when it is high [4].