油脂周报：中美贸易摩擦再起，油脂行情或波动加大-20251012

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a neutral rating for the investment strategy of the oil and fat industry [11] 2. Core View of the Report - Amid the resurgence of Sino - US trade frictions, the market for oils and fats may experience increased volatility. This week, the prices of the three major oils and fats rose. However, each type of oil has different supply - demand situations and influencing factors, which will affect their future price trends [1][6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Quotes - Futures: The closing price of the palm oil 2601 contract this week was 9,438 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 210 yuan or 2.28%. The closing price of the soybean oil 2601 contract was 8,302 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 162 yuan or 1.99%. The closing price of the rapeseed oil 2601 contract was 10,161 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 17 yuan or 0.17% [1] - Spot: In the Guangdong region, the spot price of palm oil was 9,440 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 360 yuan or 3.96%, with a spot basis of P01 + 2, a week - on - week increase of 150 yuan. In the Tianjin region, the spot price of first - grade soybean oil was 8,520 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 230 yuan/ton or 2.77%, with a spot basis of Y01 + 218, a week - on - week increase of 68 yuan. In the Jiangsu region, the spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil was 10,330 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 50 yuan or 0.49%, with a spot basis of OI01 + 269, a week - on - week increase of 33 yuan [1] Palm Oil Supply and Demand - Supply: The MPOB report on October 10 showed that Malaysia's palm oil production in September was 1.8412 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.74%. In the past two weeks (September 26 - October 9), China added 8 new palm oil purchase ships, including 1 for October, 5 for November, and 2 for December, with no new cancellations [2] - Demand: As of the week of October 9, the opening price of domestic palm oil futures on the Dalian Commodity Exchange rose sharply, following the trend of Malaysian palm oil. The inverted spread between domestic soybean oil and palm oil deepened, and spot traders were cautious and waited and watched. After the holiday, purchases were mainly for a small amount of rigid demand. According to Mysteel statistics, the trading volume of palm oil in key oil mills across the country this week was 650 tons, an increase of 550 tons or 550% compared with last week [2] - Inventory: As of October 9, 2025 (week 41), the commercial inventory of palm oil in key regions across the country was 552,200 tons, unchanged from last week, and an increase of 46,300 tons or 9.16% compared with 505,860 tons last year [2] Soybean Oil Supply and Demand - Supply: According to customs data, China imported 12.279 million tons of soybeans in August 2025, an increase of 609,000 tons compared with July and an increase of 135,000 tons or 1.11% compared with August 2024. From January to August 2025, China's cumulative soybean imports totaled 73.312 million tons, an increase of 2.833 million tons or 4% year - on - year. Steel Union data shows that the expected arrival volume in September is 10.3 million tons, 9 million tons in October, and 7.5 million tons in November. The purchase of ships for September - October has basically been completed, with a purchase progress of 68% for November and 10.3% for December. The actual soybean oil production from soybean crushing in oil mills in week 40 (September 27 - October 3) was 333,600 tons, with an operating rate of 49.01%. It is expected that the operating rate of domestic oil mills will drop significantly in week 41 (October 4 - October 10), and the soybean oil production from soybean crushing in oil mills is expected to be 257,800 tons, with an operating rate of 37.88% [3] - Demand: During this statistical period, the total trading volume of bulk soybean oil in key domestic oil mills was 14,400 tons, with an average daily trading volume of 3,600 tons, a 76% decrease compared with the average daily trading volume last week [3] - Inventory: As of September 26, 2025, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key regions across the country was 1.2487 million tons, an increase of 12,800 tons or 1.04% compared with last week, and an increase of 92,900 tons or 8.04% year - on - year [3] Rapeseed Oil Supply and Demand - Supply: As of October 3, the rapeseed crushing volume of coastal oil mills was 20,000 tons, with little change from the previous period. Many oil mills stopped rapeseed crushing, and only a few enterprises were operating. Rapeseed inventory decreased, and with the implementation of the policy of levying temporary margins on imported Canadian rapeseed, domestic oil mills will basically stop production due to lack of seeds. The market is waiting for the progress of Australian rapeseed ship schedules. As of October 3, the rapeseed oil production of coastal oil mills was 8,200 tons, unchanged from the previous period. As the rapeseed crushing volume decreases in the future, rapeseed oil production may decline significantly [4] - Demand: As of October 3, the pick - up volume of rapeseed oil in coastal oil mills was 0 tons, a decrease of 15,200 tons from the previous period. During the National Day holiday, the pick - up operation in oil mills was basically at a standstill, and it has basically returned to normal after the holiday [4] - Inventory: As of this week, the inventory of imported rapeseed across the country was 600 tons, a decrease of 20,000 tons compared with last week. The inventory of rapeseed oil in coastal oil mills this week was 76,700 tons, an increase of 8,200 tons compared with last week [5] Market Analysis - This week, the prices of the three major oils and fats rose. The suspension of the US government and the halt of relevant USDA reports added uncertainty to the market. However, there were many positive factors for oils and fats during the National Day holiday, such as Indonesia's plan to enforce the B50 program in the second half of 2026, the strike of Argentine oil mill workers, and the rumor of domestic soybean oil exports, which supported the oil and fat market. After the holiday, palm oil led the rise in oils and fats, but the price of rapeseed oil was suppressed in the short term due to the arrival of purchased ships and high inventory [6] - The increase in palm oil this week was greater than that of soybean oil, and the inverted spread between soybean oil and palm oil widened. As of the close on October 10, the spread between the 01 contracts of soybean oil and palm oil was - 1,136, and the spread between the 01 contracts of rapeseed oil and palm oil was 623 [6] Outlook - Soybean oil: The US government entered a shutdown state on October 1. The USDA said it would suspend the release of all reports during the shutdown, including monthly oilseed crushing data, export sales reports, and the monthly supply - demand report originally scheduled for October 9. Reuters analysts expect the average soybean yield in the US in the 2025/26 season to be 53.2 bushels per acre, compared with the USDA's September estimate of 53.5 bushels per acre, and the estimated soybean production to be 4.271 billion bushels, compared with the USDA's September estimate of 4.301 billion bushels. In Brazil, continuous rainfall and good weather prospects have promoted rapid soybean sowing, laying a foundation for another bumper harvest this year. Argentine soybean crushing plant workers plan to strike this week due to salary issues. Currently, the arrival of soybeans is sufficient, and the crushing is expected to remain at a high level, resulting in sufficient soybean oil supply. Recently, there have been new export orders, which support the basis to some extent. The recent remarks by Trump have aggravated trade tensions, making the import of US soybeans more difficult, and the CBOT soybean price has dropped sharply. China will continue to rely on South American soybeans, and the high near - month premium in South America will keep the import cost high, providing a bottom - support for soybean oil [7] - Palm oil: Malaysia announced an increase in the reference price of crude palm oil for October at the end of September, and the export tariff rate remains at the maximum level of 10%. Indonesia announced that the reference price of crude palm oil in October is $963.61 per ton, higher than $954.71 per ton in September. The export tax remains at $124 per ton, and Indonesia also levies a 10% special tax on palm oil, which will continue to support the price. The MPOB September report on October 10 showed that production and exports met market expectations, but domestic consumption declined, resulting in an unexpected inventory build - up to 2.36 million tons, which is at a historically high level, and the report was overall bearish. After the release of the report, palm oil prices on both domestic and foreign markets corrected. Recently, Indonesia said it will implement the mandatory B50 biodiesel program from the second half of 2026, which will create an additional demand for 530,000 tons of crude palm oil. Due to production bottlenecks, the implementation of B50 will lead to a tight supply of palm oil. Indonesia has also signed economic cooperation agreements with many countries to support palm oil trade, which is also positive for palm oil. After the holiday, domestic palm oil prices rose sharply, and the basis turned from negative to positive, quickly repairing the import profit of palm oil, leading to active domestic ship purchases. On October 9, 8 new purchase ships were added. As the increase in palm oil is greater than that of soybean oil, the inverted spread between soybean oil and palm oil deepens, and palm oil demand remains rigid. Traders and downstream customers restocked a small amount after the holiday, and the sales pressure on the middle and upper reaches is relatively large. The recent tension in Sino - US trade relations has led to a sharp decline in crude oil and peripheral stock indexes, and short - term systematic risks may have a certain drag on palm oil, but after the market digests the short - term negative factors, palm oil still has a chance to rise as the producing areas are about to enter the production - reduction season [8] - Rapeseed oil: The rapeseed harvest in the Canadian prairie region is nearly complete, and industry insiders believe that Canada's rapeseed production will be higher than the 20.03 million tons estimated by Statistics Canada last month. The report released by Statistics Canada in December shows that the production will reach or exceed 21 million tons. Due to the suspension of China's purchase of Canadian rapeseed, Canadian rapeseed exports are sluggish. As of October 5, the rapeseed export volume in the 2025/26 season was about 796,000 tons, compared with about 1.95 million tons in the same period last year. Affected by factors such as the supply pressure brought by the rapeseed harvest, the decline in CBOT soybeans, the decline in international crude oil futures, and the weak prices of European rapeseed and Malaysian palm oil, ICE rapeseed continues to operate weakly. As of the close on October 10, the closing price of the ICE rapeseed November contract was 607.4 Canadian dollars per ton. The contract structure with lower near - month prices and higher far - month prices also reflects the large supply pressure in the near - term for Canadian rapeseed. Recently, Ambassador Wang Di of China to Canada published an article in Canadian media, calling for the cancellation of unreasonable tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles. The market expects a certain improvement in Sino - Canadian trade relations. Coupled with the recent increase in the arrival of purchased rapeseed oil ships and the high inventory of rapeseed oil, it puts pressure on the rapeseed oil market. However, the almost exhausted rapeseed inventory in domestic oil mills and the shutdown due to lack of seeds provide some support for rapeseed oil [9][10]