AH溢价跌破位，港股在交易什么？：策略专题报告

Core Insights - The report addresses the changes in factors affecting the Hang Seng AH Premium Index, the trend of the index, and which sectors in Hong Kong still have a premium compared to A-shares [3] Group 1: AH Premium Index Analysis - The reasons for the price differences between AH shares include market mechanisms, liquidity differences, investor structure, lack of arbitrage mechanisms, and dividend taxes [5] - The inherent irrationality of the AH premium index is highlighted, as it does not effectively reflect the price differences between AH shares due to low coverage of constituent stocks and significant industry structure differences [3][5] - The decline in the AH premium index is deemed reasonable due to improved growth potential of Hong Kong constituent stocks, significant inflow of southbound funds, a shift towards an A-share-like investor structure, and deepening interconnectivity between the two markets [3] Group 2: Future Outlook for AH Premium Index and Hong Kong Stocks - The AH premium index is expected to continue oscillating downward along the 3YMA-3σ, with the premium space for high-growth sectors in Hong Kong compared to A-shares tending to disappear [3][24] - The report indicates that the southbound funds have significantly increased, enhancing the activity of Hong Kong stocks, with the cumulative net inflow in 2025 being 4.20 times the median level from 2016-2024 [36][42] - The investor structure is becoming more A-share-like, with the proportion of southbound fund trading volume reaching historical highs, indicating a shift in market dynamics [39][40]