化工周报：中美关税战再度发酵，成本端大幅下跌-20251012

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Cost - end: This week, oil prices fluctuated weakly. After the National Day, China's import demand slowed down while US exports increased, and Middle - East exports also rose, leading to an oversupply situation. The re - fermentation of the China - US tariff war on Friday caused a sharp drop in crude oil prices [1]. - PX: China's PX operating rate was 87.4% (up 1.0% week - on - week), and Asia's was 79.9% (up 0.8% week - on - week). China's PX load has recovered to a relatively high level, and overseas restarts and capacity expansion have weakened the Q4 supply - demand outlook and support [1]. - PTA: China's PTA operating rate was 74.4% (down 2.4% week - on - week), and the spot processing fee was 199 yuan/ton. The increase in maintenance plans has narrowed the inventory accumulation in the near - term, but the new device commissioning in December may lead to high inventory pressure. Demand improvement needs to be observed [2]. - PF: The direct - spinning polyester staple fiber operating rate was 94.3% (down 1.1% week - on - week). After the holiday, the load decreased slightly. The short - term supply - demand situation is better than the raw material end, and the processing fee is expected to remain high [3]. - PR: The bottle - chip factory operating rate (based on maximum capacity) was 72.4% (+0.4%), and the inventory was 16.8 days (up 2.1 days week - on - week). The processing fee rebounded to around 500 yuan. The short - term load change is limited, and the supply - demand pressure is large after the new device commissioning [4]. - Strategy: - Single - side: Consider short - hedging PX/PTA/PF/PR on rallies. - Cross - variety: Go long on PF processing fees at low levels: PF2511 - 0.855PTA2601 - 0.332MEG2601. - Cross - period: Reverse spread PX/PTA2601 - 2605 [5]. 3. Summary by Directory Price and Spread - The report presents various price and spread charts, including TA, PX, PF, and PR contract price trends, basis, and inter - period spreads, as well as processing fees and other related data [8][10][11][12][16] PX and PTA Supply - China's PX load and Asia's PX load are shown, along with PTA load data from China, South Korea, and Taiwan, reflecting the supply situation of PX and PTA [46][47][52] Inventory - It includes PTA weekly social inventory, PX monthly social inventory, and the inventory data of PTA and PX warehouse receipts, showing the inventory status of related products [55][60][63] Demand - Charts show the production and sales of filaments and short - fibers, polyester load, and the operating rates of various downstream industries such as weaving, texturing, and dyeing, reflecting the demand situation [65][69][71] PF Supply - Demand - Inventory - It presents the load of polyester staple fibers, factory inventory days, and the operating rates and profits of pure - polyester yarn and polyester - cotton yarn, showing the supply - demand - inventory situation of PF [87][91][93] PR Supply - Demand - Inventory - It shows the load of polyester bottle - chips, factory inventory days, and processing fees and export profits, reflecting the supply - demand - inventory situation of PR [106][108][110]