黑色建材周报：供需双弱延续，钢价震荡运行-20251012

Report Industry Investment Rating - The unilateral investment rating is oscillating weakly [2] Core Viewpoints - The supply and demand of steel remain weak, and steel prices are oscillating. The output of building materials continues to decline, the inventory accumulation rate is higher than in previous years, the downstream replenishment demand is significantly weakened, the demand shows no obvious improvement, and the peak - season demand is limited. The profit of plate mills does not strongly drive production cuts, and the inventory of plates has increased significantly during holidays. In the short term, steel prices will maintain an oscillating and weakly downward trend [1][2] Summary by Related Catalogs Price and Spread - As of the close this Friday, the main contract 2601 of rebar closed at 3,103 yuan/ton, and the main contract 2601 of hot - rolled coil closed at 3,285 yuan/ton [1][4] Supply - The average daily hot - metal output of 247 steel mills surveyed by Mysteel was 2.4154 million tons, a decrease of 2,700 tons from last week and an increase of 84,600 tons compared with last year. The actual output of the five major steel products this period was 8.6331 million tons, a decrease of 37,600 tons from the previous period. Among them, the rebar output was 2.034 million tons, a decrease of 36,200 tons from the previous period; the hot - rolled coil output was 3.2329 million tons, a decrease of 14,000 tons from the previous period [1][21] Consumption - According to Mysteel data, the total apparent demand for the five major steel products this period was 7.3545 million tons, a decrease of 1.6937 million tons from the previous period. Among them, the apparent demand for rebar was 1.4601 million tons, a decrease of 950,600 tons from the previous period; the apparent demand for hot - rolled coil was 2.9009 million tons, a decrease of 336,400 tons from the previous period [1][24] Inventory - According to Mysteel data, the total inventory of the five major steel products this week reached 16.0072 million tons, an increase of 1.2786 million tons from the previous week. The rebar inventory this week was 6.5964 million tons, a weekly increase of 573,900 tons; the total inventory of hot - rolled coils was 4.129 million tons, a weekly increase of 190,200 tons [1][29] Strategy - Unilateral: Oscillating weakly. In the short term, steel prices will maintain an oscillating and weakly downward trend. Pay attention to the inventory situation after the holiday and the support of raw material costs. There are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [2]