Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - For nickel, the global nickel surplus pattern remains difficult to change, with increasing inventory, and prices will mainly oscillate within a platform range. For stainless steel, after the destocking ends, cost support weakens, and downstream demand is weak, so prices are expected to remain in a low - level oscillating state [4][7]. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Market Analysis - Price: This week, the main contract of Shanghai nickel showed a trend of rising first and then falling, with prices fluctuating between 121,220 - 124,880 yuan/ton and finally closing at 121,800 yuan/ton, a 0.49% increase from last week. Due to the overall strength of the non - ferrous sector during the National Day and the impact of Indonesia's new nickel ore policy, the price of Shanghai nickel opened higher and moved higher on October 9th, but the spot market trading was light, and the price quickly fell on October 10th. After the decline, downstream enterprises increased their purchases and the transaction improved. The latest offer of Jinchuan nickel's premium to the mainstream of Shanghai nickel 2511 decreased by 50 yuan/ton compared with last week, while the real - time converted premium in the Shanghai area increased by 1,100 yuan/ton compared with last week [1]. - Macro: The US federal government shutdown on October 1st increased the uncertainty of the global economic outlook. The cooling of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation in October led to the strengthening of the US dollar index to 106.5 and the depreciation of the RMB exchange rate to 7.35, which put downward pressure on prices. During the National Day, China introduced new policies on culture, tourism, and infrastructure, strengthening the medium - and long - term demand expectation of new energy and high - end manufacturing for key metals. Coupled with the market's expectation of more "steady - growth" policies in the fourth quarter, the risk preference of the basic metals sector significantly increased [1]. Supply - The nickel ore market was relatively calm this week, and the price remained stable. In the Philippines, the rainy season is approaching in mining areas such as Surigao, and mines have gradually stopped shipping. Iron plants' profits have been hit, and they have maintained a cautious attitude towards purchasing nickel ore. In Indonesia, the supply of the nickel ore market remains in a loose pattern. However, the Indonesian government has shortened the mining license period from 3 years to 1 year, which has short - term concerns about the supply stability in 2026 and later. Although the 2025 quota is still valid, the policy adjustment has added variables to the medium - and long - term production capacity release [2]. Consumption - In September, the demand for stainless steel and battery materials remained basically stable, and the nickel consumption of alloys and special steels increased to some extent. However, considering that "Golden September and Silver October" is the traditional consumption peak season, the overall consumption growth was lower than expected [2]. Cost and Profit - The cost of producing electrowon nickel from integrated MHP is 116,448 yuan/ton, with a profit of 4.40%; the cost of producing electrowon nickel from integrated high - matte nickel is 124,802 yuan/ton, with a profit of - 2.60%; the cost of producing electrowon nickel from externally purchased nickel sulfate is 137,134 yuan/ton, with a profit of - 10.50%; the cost of producing electrowon nickel from externally purchased MHP is 137,839 yuan/ton, with a profit of - 10.90%; the cost of producing electrowon nickel from externally purchased high - matte nickel is 132,859 yuan/ton, with a profit of - 7.60% [2]. Inventory - This week, the Shanghai Futures Exchange's nickel inventory was 33,119 tons, a decrease of 504 tons from last week; the LME nickel inventory was 237,378 tons, a decrease of 204 tons from last week; the nickel inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 3,700 tons, remaining unchanged from last week; the refined nickel inventory in China (including the free - trade zone) was 45,630 tons, a decrease of 1,371 tons from last week [3]. Strategy - Unilateral: None; Inter - period: None; Inter - variety: None; Spot - futures: Maintain the idea of selling hedging on rallies in the medium - and long - term; Options: None [4]. Stainless Steel Market Analysis - Price: This week, the main contract of stainless steel futures showed a trend of rising first and then falling, closing at 12,805 yuan/ton on Friday, a 55 - yuan increase from last week's 12,750 yuan/ton. In the first week after the festival, the spot market continued the pre - festival light situation, with poor transaction conditions and small fluctuations in overall quotes [4]. - Macro: During the festival, the US government shutdown increased the capital's risk - aversion demand, pushing up the overall price of commodity futures. Coupled with the expectation of two more Fed interest - rate cuts this year, it was generally positive for commodity prices. The cultural and tourism consumption stimulus policies and infrastructure investment plans introduced during the National Day enhanced the market's confidence in the economic recovery in the fourth quarter. The collective strength of the basic metals sector drove the stainless steel futures to rise [4]. Supply - As "Golden September and Silver October" is coming to an end, the stainless steel operating rate remains at a high level. Some steel mills are still operating at full capacity to complete their annual production plans. At the same time, due to the low inventory of steel mills, some shut - down steel mills have adjusted and resumed production. It is expected that the output will continue to increase in October [5]. Consumption - In the new energy sector, the demand for battery cases and photovoltaic brackets has increased to some extent, but the overall downstream demand is weak. The main downstream industries such as home appliances, machinery, and construction have a low willingness to purchase stainless steel. Especially the home appliance industry, affected by the continuous downturn of the real estate market, the sales growth of kitchen appliances, sanitary equipment and other products is slow, reducing the demand for stainless steel sheets [5]. Cost and Profit - This week, the purchase prices of high - nickel ferrochrome and high - carbon ferrochrome both decreased, driving down the cost of stainless steel. As of October 10th, the cost of smelting 304 cold - rolled stainless steel by the short - process was 13,078 yuan/ton, a - 0.66% month - on - month change; the cost of smelting 304 cold - rolled stainless steel by the process of purchasing high - nickel ferrochrome externally was 14,258 yuan/ton, a - 0.52% month - on - month change; the cost of smelting 304 cold - rolled stainless steel by the integrated process was 13,783 yuan/ton, a 0.00% month - on - month change [5]. Inventory - On August 29th, the total social inventory of stainless steel in 89 warehouses in the national mainstream market was 1,053,646 tons, a + 7.97% week - on - week change. The total inventory of cold - rolled stainless steel was 624,731 tons, a + 6.14% week - on - week change. The total inventory of hot - rolled stainless steel was 428,915 tons, a + 10.74% week - on - week change. The stainless steel inventory has continued to decline for eight consecutive weeks and has basically returned to the beginning - of - year level [6]. Strategy - Unilateral: None; Inter - period: None; Inter - variety: None; Spot - futures: None; Options: None [7].
新能源及有色金属周报：节后行情清淡，价格冲高回落-20251012
Hua Tai Qi Huo·2025-10-12 11:23