半导体10月投资策略：AI链国产化能力日益增强，存储涨价周期明确

Core Insights - The report maintains an "outperform" rating for the semiconductor sector, highlighting the increasing domestic capabilities in the AI supply chain and a clear price increase cycle in storage [1][6]. Market Review - In September 2025, the SW semiconductor index rose by 14.07%, outperforming the electronic industry by 3.10 percentage points and the CSI 300 index by 10.86 percentage points [3][13]. - The semiconductor equipment sector saw the highest increase at +27.82%, followed by semiconductor materials at +14.72% [3][19]. - The current PE (TTM) for the SW semiconductor index is 118.97x, placing it at the 91.58 percentile since 2019, indicating a relatively high valuation [3][23]. Industry Data Update - Global semiconductor sales reached $64.88 billion in August 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 21.7% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 4.4% [5][40]. - The sales in China were $17.63 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 12.4% [5][41]. - The prices of DRAM and NAND Flash have continued to rise, with forecasts indicating a quarter-on-quarter increase of 13%-18% for DRAM and 5%-10% for NAND Flash in Q4 2025 [5][47]. Investment Strategy - The report emphasizes the strengthening of domestic AI chip manufacturers, recommending companies such as Cambrian, Aojie Technology, and others in the AI supply chain [6][7]. - The storage chip market is expected to benefit from rising prices and increased demand driven by AI applications, with recommendations for domestic storage manufacturers like Jiangbolong and Demingli [6][7]. - The report also notes the initiation of anti-dumping investigations into imported analog chips from the U.S., which may enhance price competition and accelerate domestic substitution [6][7]. Fund Holdings Analysis - In Q2 2025, the proportion of semiconductor holdings in active funds was 10.1%, with a market value of 252.7 billion yuan [4][30]. - The top five semiconductor stocks accounted for 37.1% of the top twenty holdings, slightly down from 37.9% in the previous quarter [4][37]. Key Company Forecasts - The report provides earnings forecasts for key companies, with SMIC expected to have a net profit of 5.76 billion yuan in 2025, translating to a PE of 149 [7]. - Other companies like Huahong Semiconductor and Jiewa Technology are also highlighted with their respective earnings and valuations [7].