投资策略周报：冲击将小于4.7行情，“转机与机遇”成十月主题词-20251012

Market Review - Recent tensions in China-US trade relations have escalated, with President Trump announcing a 100% tariff on China starting November 1, leading to a significant drop in global stock markets, including a 3.56% decline in the Nasdaq index, the largest single-day drop since April [1][2] Market Outlook - The impact of the current tariff shock is expected to be less severe than the April incident, with the theme for October being "turning points and opportunities." The volatility in capital markets is anticipated due to the heightened trade friction, but the overall effect may be mitigated by the market's learning effect and China's improved market stabilization mechanisms [2][3] - The G2 nations are likely to see potential turning points, with the APEC summit at the end of October being a critical event. The tactical increase in tariffs may serve as leverage for future negotiations, indicating a high probability of a "TACO" (Tariff and Cooperation) scenario [2][3] - In terms of industry allocation, sectors such as dividends, agriculture, military, and rare earths may outperform in the short term, while the technology revolution remains a key medium-term theme [2][3] Asset Valuation - Current valuations of Chinese assets are considered reasonable, with the central government acting as a stabilizing force in the market. The PE ratios for major indices are within historical ranges, with the CSI 300 index at the 81st percentile and the ChiNext index at the 43rd percentile historically [3][4] - The "national team," represented by the Central Huijin Investment, has become a stabilizing factor in the market, showing maturity in responding to market shocks [3][4] Tactical and Strategic Insights - The tactical increase in tariffs by Trump may be aimed at enhancing negotiation leverage, with a high likelihood of a "TACO" scenario as the end of October approaches [3][4] - The long-term consensus is that the trade friction's impact on the stock market will diminish over time, as China's response strategies have become more proactive and mature compared to previous years [3][4]