美国政府停摆，关税升级助力黄金

Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the gold industry is "Oscillation" [1] Core Viewpoints - The price of gold has reached a new high due to multiple positive factors, including the U.S. government shutdown, escalating Sino - U.S. trade frictions, and a weakening U.S. employment market. However, after reaching a new high, the volatility of gold has increased, and there are also some factors that may cause short - term fluctuations [2][3] - In the short term, the price of gold will be in a high - level oscillation, with increased market volatility, and the domestic gold will remain at a discount [4] Summary by Directory 1. Gold High - Frequency Data Weekly Changes - The domestic basis (spot - futures) decreased by 27.3%, and the internal - external futures price difference (internal - external) decreased by 47.5%. The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange remained unchanged, while the COMEX gold inventory decreased by 0.42%. The SPDR ETF holding volume increased by 0.22%, and the CFTC gold speculative net long position decreased by 1.2% [11] - The U.S. Treasury bond yield decreased by 1.9%, the U.S. dollar index increased by 1.13%, the SOFR decreased by 1.7%, the U.S. 10 - year breakeven inflation rate increased by 0.72%, the S&P 500 index decreased by 2.4%, and the VIX volatility index increased by 30.1% [11] - The gold cross - market arbitrage trading decreased by 0.7%, and the U.S. 10 - year real interest rate decreased by 1.3% [11] 2. Financial Market - Related Data Tracking 2.1 U.S. Financial Market - The U.S. overnight secured financing rate is 4.13%. Oil prices decreased by 2.8%, and the U.S. inflation expectation is 2.35% [17] - The U.S. dollar index increased by 1.28%, and the U.S. Treasury bond yield decreased to 4.03%. The S&P 500 index decreased by 2.43%, and the VIX index increased to 21.66 [19] - The real interest rate decreased to 1.76%, and the gold price increased by 3.4%. The spot commodity index closed down, and the U.S. dollar index increased by 1.28 [20] 2.2 Global Financial Market - Stocks, Bonds, Currencies, and Commodities - Most developed - country stock markets declined, with the S&P 500 index down 2.43%. Most developing - country stock markets also declined, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.37% [21] - U.S. and German bonds declined, with a U.S. - German yield spread of 1.42%. The yield of UK Treasury bonds is 4.72%, and that of Japanese bonds is 1.688% [24] - The euro depreciated by 1.06%, the pound depreciated by 0.9%, the yen depreciated by 2.52%, and the Swiss franc depreciated by 0.48%. The U.S. dollar index increased by 1.28% to 98.9, and most non - U.S. currencies depreciated [26][29] 3. Gold Trading - Level Data Tracking - The data on the net long position of gold speculation was suspended due to the government shutdown. The SPDR gold ETF holding volume rebounded to 1017 tons [32] - The RMB exchange rate fluctuated, and the discount of Shanghai gold widened. Gold and silver prices rose, and the gold - silver ratio dropped to 78.5 [34] 4. Weekly Economic Calendar - Monday: China's September import - export, credit, and social financing data - Tuesday: U.S. September NFIB Small Business Optimism Index - Wednesday: China's September CPI - Thursday: U.S. September retail sales, October NAHB Housing Market Index, and the Fed's Beige Book on Economic Conditions - Friday: U.S. September new housing starts and building permits [35]