量化择时周报：缓和预期仍存，调整空间或有限-20251012

Core Insights - The report indicates that the market is currently in an upward trend, with the key observation being whether the market's profitability can be sustained. As long as the profitability remains positive, there is potential for continued inflow of incremental funds in the medium term [2][10] - The current WIND All A trend line is positioned at approximately 6237 points, with a profitability effect of about 1.43%, which remains positive. It is suggested to maintain existing positions until the profitability effect turns negative [3][10] - The report highlights that the valuation levels of the WIND All A index are at a moderate level, with the overall PE at the 85th percentile and PB at the 50th percentile. Based on short-term trends, it is recommended to maintain an 80% position in absolute return products that use WIND All A as the stock allocation [3][10] Market Performance - The report notes that the WIND All A index experienced a decline of 0.36% last week, with small-cap stocks represented by the CSI 2000 down by 0.06%, mid-cap stocks by the CSI 500 down by 0.19%, the CSI 300 down by 0.51%, and the SSE 50 down by 0.47% [9] - Strong performing sectors last week included non-ferrous metals and coal, with non-ferrous metals rising by 4.35%. Conversely, the media and consumer services sectors performed poorly, with media down by 3.58% [9] Sector Allocation - The industry allocation model indicates that the upward trend in the precious metals sector continues, and it is recommended to hold positions in this sector. Additionally, sectors benefiting from policy-driven initiatives, such as rare earths and chemicals, are expected to perform well [3][10] - The TWO BETA model continues to recommend the technology sector, with a focus on domestic computing power and the Hang Seng Internet [3][10]