Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral - Inter - period: UR01 - 05 short at high prices - Inter - variety: None [3] Core Viewpoints - Urea demand is weak, spot prices continue to decline, and futures follow suit. Low - level trading has improved but the sustainability is average. Insufficient domestic demand has led to inventory accumulation in factories, while port inventory has decreased slightly. In the medium - to - long - term, urea supply and demand remain loose due to new capacity release. The market is currently affected by export sentiment, and attention should be paid to subsequent export policies and the procurement rhythm in Northeast China [2] Summary by Content Directory I. Price and Spread - Urea主力收盘1597元/吨（-12）；河南小颗粒市场价1530元/吨（-10）；山东小颗粒市场价1540元/吨（-10）；江苏小颗粒市场价1550元/吨（-10）；小块无烟煤750元/吨（+0）；山东尿素基差-47元/吨（+2）；河南尿素基差-57元/吨（-18）；江苏尿素基差-37元/吨（+2）；尿素生产利润10.0元/吨（-10.0）；出口利润982.4元/吨（+11.3） [1] II. Upstream Supply - As of October 12, 2025, the enterprise capacity utilization rate was 85.67% (+1.97%) [1] III. Downstream Demand - As of October 12, 2025, the compound fertilizer capacity utilization rate was 25.50% (-6.96%), the melamine capacity utilization rate was 65.47% (+4.0%), and the pre - received order days of urea enterprises were 7.00 days (-2.2) [1] IV. Urea Inventory - As of October 12, 2025, the enterprise in - factory inventory was 1.444 billion tons (+212,000), and the port inventory was 415 million tons (-38,000) [1]
尿素周报：内需继续偏弱，关注政策动态-20251012
Hua Tai Qi Huo·2025-10-12 11:57