黑色建材周报：下游采购情绪谨慎，双焦期货震荡运行-20251012

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for coking coal and coke is "Oscillation" [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The downstream procurement sentiment is cautious, and the coking coal and coke futures are oscillating. For coke, the supply is contracting marginally, and the demand is supported in stages but the price increase is under pressure. For coking coal, the supply elasticity is increasing, and the actual demand growth is relatively limited [1][2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Price and Spread - The coking coal main contract closed at 1,161.0 yuan/ton, and the coke main contract closed at 1,666.5 yuan/ton. The market sentiment is cautious, and the prices are mainly oscillating [1][5] Supply - The capacity utilization rate of 523 coking coal mines is 81.9%, a week-on-week decrease of 4.6%. The daily output of raw coal is 183.9 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 10.3 million tons; the daily output of clean coal is 75.2 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 2.2 million tons. The daily output of coke is 112.5 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 0.12 million tons [1][21][28] Demand - The daily molten iron output of 247 steel mills is 241.54 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 0.27 million tons and a year-on-year increase of 8.46 million tons [1][35] Inventory - The total coke inventory is 967.2 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 15.11 million tons. The inventory of 247 steel mills is 650.80 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 12.6 million tons; the inventory of independent coking plants is 63.8 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 1.49 million tons; the inventory of 18 ports is 252.60 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 4.00 million tons. The coking coal inventory is 3,632.4 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 131.9 million tons, with significant decreases in independent coking plants and ports [1][37]