中美关税摩擦再升级，警惕对风险资产冲击

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Domestic economic situation shows a gap between strong expectations and weak reality, with economic pressure increasing marginally in August, featuring "slow industry, weak investment, and dull consumption," and external tariff pressure rising. The government has introduced policies such as new policy - based financial tools worth 500 billion yuan and 1.1 trillion yuan of repurchase operations to address these issues. Attention should be paid to post - holiday policy expectations and the possible correction of the current off - peak season situation [2]. - Sino - US tariff friction has intensified. With the expiration of the tariff delay on November 10 approaching, the market's concern about the risks brought by tariff friction has risen rapidly. Before the South Korea APEC Summit from October 28 to November 1, the risk impact of tariff escalation on the market should be vigilant [3]. - The US government shutdown has entered its second week, and the market has under - priced the severity of the shutdown. Attention should be paid to the follow - up development of the event. In the commodity market, focus on sectors such as gold and non - ferrous metals, and also pay attention to the "anti - involution" space of some chemical products and the impact of Sino - US negotiations on agricultural products [4]. - In terms of strategy, it is recommended to allocate long positions in industrial products and precious metals in the commodity and stock index futures markets [5]. Summary by Directory Market Analysis - Domestic economic data in August showed signs of weakness, with external tariff pressure increasing from the US, Mexico, India, etc. The government has introduced policies to stabilize growth, including new policy - based financial tools and large - scale repurchase operations. Attention should be paid to post - holiday policy expectations and the possible correction of the off - peak season situation [2]. - Sino - US tariff friction has escalated. The US has taken measures such as adding Chinese enterprises to the entity list and increasing tariffs on imported products. China has responded with export controls on rare earths. Before the South Korea APEC Summit, the risk impact of tariff escalation on the market should be vigilant [3]. - The US government shutdown has entered its second week, affecting economic data release. The market has under - priced the severity of the shutdown. In the commodity market, different sectors have different trends, and gold is expected to strengthen [4]. Strategy - In the commodity and stock index futures markets, it is recommended to allocate long positions in industrial products and precious metals [5]. To - do List - On October 6, Trump announced a 25% tariff on imported medium and heavy - duty trucks starting from November 1, 2025. On September 25, he had announced a 25% tariff on all imported heavy - duty trucks starting from October 1 [6]. - The Fed's attitude towards the economy and inflation is complex. Some officials believe that continued easing may be appropriate this year, but inflation has upward risks, and employment has downward risks [6]. - China's central bank increased its gold reserves for the 11th consecutive month in September, and on October 9, it carried out 1.1 trillion yuan of repurchase operations [6]. - The first - stage Gaza cease - fire agreement came into effect on October 9, and Israel approved the agreement on October 10 [6]. - The US will impose additional port service fees on Chinese - owned or - operated ships starting from October 14, which seriously violates international trade principles and the Sino - US shipping agreement [6]. Macroeconomic Indicators - US Economic Heat Map: In September 2025, the GDP growth rate was 2.08%, the Markit manufacturing PMI was 52.00, and the service PMI was 54.20. Investment, employment, inflation, consumption, finance, and net exports all had corresponding data changes [8]. - European Economic Heat Map: In September 2025, the GDP growth rate was 1.30%, the manufacturing PMI was 49.80, and the service PMI was 51.30. There were also changes in investment, employment, consumption, inflation, trade, credit, and finance [9]. - Chinese Economic Heat Map: In the third quarter of 2025, the GDP growth rate was 5.2%. Trade, investment, consumption, inflation, finance, and other aspects had different trends, such as a 5.9% cumulative year - on - year increase in export volume and a 0.5% cumulative year - on - year increase in fixed - asset investment [10]. Interest Rates - The report provides data on the 10 - year and 2 - year Sino - US Treasury bond spreads [21]. Foreign Exchange - It includes data on the week - on - week change of the US dollar against major currencies and the trend of the US dollar index [24][26].