国债期货周报：中美贸易战重启，国债期货大多走高-20251012

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - From October 9th to 10th, the Treasury bond market showed a volatile pattern of "rising first and then falling." After the holiday, the market sentiment improved significantly, and both the bond and stock markets rose. Treasury bond futures strengthened across the board. However, on October 10th, the market reversed sharply due to concerns about liquidity tightening and rising geopolitical risks [3]. - For strategies, in the unilateral aspect, with the decline of repo rates and the oscillation of Treasury bond futures prices, the 2512 contract is cautiously bullish; in the arbitrage aspect, attention should be paid to the decline of the T2512 basis; in the hedging aspect, there is medium - term adjustment pressure, and short - sellers can use far - month contracts for appropriate hedging [4]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - Macroeconomic Aspect - Policy: Since August 8, 2025, VAT will be levied on the interest income of newly issued Treasury bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds. The 24% tariff between China and the US will be suspended for 90 days from August 12. The government emphasizes measures to stabilize the real estate market, expand consumption and investment. In October, the US added Chinese entities to the export control list and imposed special port fees, and China responded similarly [1]. - Inflation: The CPI in August decreased by 0.4% year - on - year [1]. Market Analysis - Capital Aspect - Fiscal: At the end of August, M2 increased by 8.8% year - on - year, M1 rebounded to 6%, and the gap between them narrowed. The increase in RMB loans in the first eight months was 13.46 trillion yuan, and the cumulative social financing increment was 26.56 trillion yuan. Deposit growth was 8.6%, and the growth rates of credit and deposits declined slightly [2]. - Central Bank: On October 11, 2025, the central bank conducted 116 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed rate of 1.4% [2]. - Money Market: The main term repo rates for 1D, 7D, and 14D were 1.32%, 1.42%, and 1.48% respectively, and the repo rates have recently declined [2]. Market Analysis - Market Aspect - Closing Prices: On October 10, 2025, the closing prices of TS, TF, T, and TL were 102.35 yuan, 105.65 yuan, 107.98 yuan, and 113.97 yuan respectively. The weekly price changes were - 0.03%, 0.02%, 0.13%, and 0.06% respectively [2]. - Net Basis: The average net basis of TS, TF, T, and TL were 0.02 yuan, 0.04 yuan, 0.02 yuan, and - 0.03 yuan respectively [2]. Strategies - Unilateral: With the decline of repo rates and the oscillation of Treasury bond futures prices, the 2512 contract is cautiously bullish [4]. - Arbitrage: Pay attention to the decline of the T2512 basis [4]. - Hedging: There is medium - term adjustment pressure, and short - sellers can use far - month contracts for appropriate hedging [4].