农产品周报：苹果推迟上市价格稳硬，红枣关注品质变化和订园进展-20251012

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Apple: Neutral to bullish [4] - Red dates: Neutral [8] Core Views - For apples, continuous rainy weather has delayed the concentrated listing of red apples and compressed the acquisition and warehousing time. Good-quality apples are expected to have stable and strong prices with a significant price gap between good and average-quality apples. Attention should be paid to the game between merchants' acquisition mentality and fruit farmers' selling mentality [2][3][4] - For red dates, the new season's red dates are at a critical period. The market has a relatively certain judgment on the production trend, and the fruit quality is better than last year. The futures price may face a volatile pattern. Attention should be paid to consumption, new-season quality, and production changes [6][7][8] Summary by Related Catalogs Apple Market News and Important Data - Futures: This week, the closing price of the Apple 2601 contract was 8,744 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 127 yuan/ton, or 1.47% [1] - Spot: The price of 80 first and second-grade apples in Qixia, Shandong was 7,600 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week. The spot basis was AP01 - 1,144, a week-on-week decrease of 127 yuan/ton. The price of 70 semi-commodity apples in Luochuan, Shaanxi was 9,600 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week. The spot basis was AP01 + 856, a week-on-week decrease of 127 yuan/ton [1] Recent Market Information - As of October 9, 2025, the cold storage inventory of apples in the main producing areas was 67,900 tons. New-season late Fuji apples are gradually being listed. Due to continuous rainy weather, the coloring in the western producing areas is slow, and the large supply of red apples is delayed compared to last year [2] - In Shandong, the new-season late Fuji apples are mostly waiting to be colored. The coloring is slower than the same period last year, with few red apples and low commodity rates this year. Merchants are cautious in their acquisitions [2] - In Shaanxi, the coloring is slow, and the listing of red apples is limited. Most late Fuji apples are still in the coloring stage and will enter the concentrated trading stage in 5 - 7 days. Merchants are mostly in a wait-and-see mood [2] - In the sales areas, the number of incoming vehicles at the Guangdong Chalong Market fluctuates significantly. The terminal market consumption during the National Day holiday was slightly slower year-on-year. The sales of new-season late Fuji good-quality apples are okay, but there is pressure on daily digestion, and there is some backlog in the transit warehouses [2] Market Analysis - New-season late Fuji apples are gradually being listed this week, but the acquisition and warehousing time is compressed. The sales during and after the Double Festival were average. Good-quality apples' prices are stable and slightly strong, and merchants are cautious in their acquisitions but active in acquiring good-quality apples [3] - Next week, late Fuji apples in the eastern and western regions will be on the market for trading. The price gap between good and average-quality apples will be obvious. If there is a rush to buy good-quality apples, the prices will remain stable and strong, while the prices of average-quality apples may not be strong due to the increase in supply [3] Strategy - Neutral to bullish. Currently, late Fuji apples are being traded sporadically. Due to weather conditions, it is difficult to organize a large number of red apples, and the acquisition period may be shortened. Good-quality apples' prices are expected to be stable and strong, with a significant price gap [4] Red Dates Market News and Important Data - Futures: This week, the Red Dates 2601 contract rose slightly. As of October 10, the closing price was 11,145 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 325 yuan/ton, or 3.00% [5] - Spot: The purchase price of Xinjiang grey dates in the 2024 production season was concentrated at 4.50 - 5.50 yuan/kg, with a reference average purchase price of 5.33 yuan/kg. The spot price of first-grade grey dates in Hebei was 9,500 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week. The spot basis was CJ01 - 1,645, a week-on-week decrease of 325 [5] Recent Market Information - The new-season red dates are at a critical period between the old and new production seasons. The jujube trees in the main producing areas are in the drying period, with good overall growth and are about to be harvested, possibly about a week earlier than last year [6] - Inland merchants have gone to Xinjiang to contract orchards around the National Day holiday. The orchard contracting process in Hotan and Aksu is relatively fast, with the contracting price range at 5.50 - 8.00 yuan/kg, and a small amount of high-quality goods priced around 9.00 yuan/kg [6] - The market has a relatively certain judgment on the new-season jujube production trend. The weather is sunny with little rainfall, which is conducive to sugar accumulation and quality improvement. The market's concerns about jujube quality have been alleviated, and the jujube quality is better than last year [6] - The arrival volume in the sales areas this week is low. During the National Day holiday, the arrival volume at the Hebei market's parking area was more than 10 vehicles, significantly lower than more than 200 vehicles in the same period last year. Affected by continuous rainfall, there are few merchants looking at and purchasing goods, and the trading atmosphere is light [6] Market Analysis - Currently, red dates are at a critical period of switching between the off - and peak - seasons and the "alternation of old and new seasons." Grey dates in the Xinjiang main producing areas are about to be harvested, and merchants are starting to contract orchards in small quantities [7] - Affected by the National Day holiday, the trading atmosphere in the spot market in the sales areas this week was average, with downstream rigid - demand purchases as the main form. The spot prices fluctuated slightly, and the trading was a bit light [7] - The inventory depletion rate of 36 sample points is flatter than in recent years, and there is still inventory pressure. The supply - demand contradiction has not been substantially alleviated [7] - The jujube production in the 2024 production season was large, and the inventory was high, but the quality was not good. The new - season jujube trees have the problem of over - depletion, and a production reduction is a normal expectation. The estimated new - season production is 56 - 620,000 tons [7] Strategy - Neutral. Overall, if the production and quality are lower than expected, the upward trend of red dates may continue; otherwise, the red dates' futures prices will face a volatile pattern with limited upward movement and strong support at the bottom. Attention should be paid to consumption, new - season quality, and production changes [8]