短期关注秋季呼吸系统传染病叠加流行情况

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Overweight" [3][11]. Core Views - The vaccine industry is currently experiencing a transition from scale expansion to innovation-driven growth, facing short-term pain due to supply-demand imbalance and homogenized competition, but the long-term positive outlook remains unchanged [10][11]. - The industry is under pressure in Q2 2025, with performance still in a bottoming process due to high Me-too pipeline ratios leading to intense competition and price declines, alongside weak demand and market education [9][10]. - The focus is on innovation and international market expansion, with companies actively adjusting their pipeline layouts to enhance competitive advantages [10][11]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The vaccine sector has shown a relative performance decline of -7% over the past month and -29% over the past year compared to the CSI 300 index [5]. - The vaccine sector's absolute return is -5% for the past month and -12% for the past year [5]. Market Review - The vaccine sector rose by 0.72% last week, with a cumulative decline of -2.35% since the beginning of 2025 [6]. - Notable companies in the vaccine sector include Lianoning Chengda, Hualan Biological, and Wantai Biological, while companies like Olin Biological and CanSino have underperformed [7]. Valuation - The vaccine sector's PE (ttm) is 103.74X, with a year-on-year maximum of 111.89X and a minimum of 27.99X [8]. - The PB (lf) stands at 1.91X, with a maximum of 2.29X and a minimum of 1.69X over the past year [8]. Investment Recommendations - The vaccine industry is advised to focus on companies with high technical barriers and differentiated pipeline layouts to find alpha opportunities amid industry differentiation [11][28]. - Companies with strong R&D innovation and technical advantages, such as CanSino and Kanghua Biological, are recommended for investment [11][28].