供应过剩成本下行，氧化铝价格维持偏弱走势

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the alumina industry is "Oscillating" [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The alumina market is facing an oversupply situation with declining costs, leading to a weak price trend. The futures price is expected to oscillate weakly, and it is recommended to adopt a strategy of short - selling on rallies to address the supply - demand imbalance [15][16] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Alumina Industry Chain Weekly Overview - Raw Materials: Domestic ore prices remained stable last week. Challenges in domestic ore production due to environmental inspections, resource integration, and rainfall have increased dependence on imports. Guinea bauxite prices are stable, and shipments are recovering. Newly arrived ore was 3.12 million tons, including 2.137 million tons from Guinea and 0.982 million tons from Australia [12] - Alumina: Spot prices fell last week. The domestic alumina industry is in a high - production state with no long - cycle maintenance plans in the short term. The built - in production capacity is 114.62 million tons, the operating capacity is 98.55 million tons, and the operating rate is 85.9%. Import profits are narrowing, and some local enterprises are facing losses [13] - Demand: Domestic and overseas demand for electrolytic aluminum remained stable. Domestic operating capacity was 44.253 million tons, and overseas was 29.761 million tons [14] - Inventory: As of October 9, the national alumina inventory was 3.902 million tons, an increase of 105,000 tons from before the National Day holiday. Both alumina and electrolytic aluminum enterprises' inventories increased [14] - Warehouse Receipts: The registered warehouse receipts of alumina on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 5,737 tons to 176,029 tons. The futures price is under pressure due to oversupply at home and abroad [15] 3.2 Weekly Key Event News Summary in the Industry Chain - Narrowing Import Profits: As of October 10, the Australian alumina price was about $324/ton. The theoretical import profit in the north decreased from 56 yuan/ton to 7 yuan/ton [17] - Transactions in Western Australia: On October 9, 30,000 tons of alumina were traded in Western Australia at an FOB price of $323/ton for November shipment [17] - Tendering Results in Xinjiang: On October 9, a Xinjiang electrolytic aluminum plant tendered for 10,000 tons of alumina, and the winning bid price was 3,180 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 - 20 yuan/ton from the previous period [17] 3.3 Key Data Monitoring of the Upstream and Downstream of the Industry Chain - Raw Materials and Cost: The report monitors domestic and imported bauxite prices, port inventories, shipping volumes, and prices of caustic soda and thermal coal [18][20][27] - Alumina Price and Supply - Demand Balance: It monitors domestic and imported alumina prices, electrolytic aluminum prices, and the futures price ratio. The supply - demand balance table shows the changes in alumina and electrolytic aluminum operating capacity and supply - demand differences from June to October 2025 [34][36][42] - Alumina Inventory and Warehouse Receipts: It monitors the alumina inventories of electrolytic aluminum plants, alumina plants, ports, and the total social inventory, as well as the warehouse receipts and positions on the Shanghai Futures Exchange [45][50][53]