氯碱周报：烧碱现货成交好转，关注采购持续性-20251012

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information regarding the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Caustic Soda: The spot trading of caustic soda has improved, but attention should be paid to the sustainability of procurement. The supply is expected to decline slightly due to increased maintenance, and the demand from alumina is stable while non - aluminum demand is cautiously increasing. The cost support remains, but the chlor - alkali profit is at a relatively low level compared to the same period [1][2]. - PVC: The PVC market is in a weak state. The supply is abundant despite some reduction in quantity due to autumn maintenance. The demand is weak, and the inventory is accumulating. The export has some resilience but is affected by Indian policies. The futures price is under pressure, and attention should be paid to macro - policies and the Politburo meeting [5]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents I. Caustic Soda Price & Spread - As of October 10, 2025, the SH main contract of caustic soda closed at 2470 yuan/ton (+20). The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 820 yuan/ton (+5), and the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 1300 yuan/ton (+0) [1]. II. PVC Price & Spread - As of October 10, 2025, the PVC main contract closed at 4735 yuan/ton (-34). The spot price of PVC in East China was 4620 yuan/ton (+0), and in South China was 4700 yuan/ton (+0) [3][4]. III. Cost Profit - Caustic Soda: The comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of caustic soda + 0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) was 748.28 yuan/ton (-24.38), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of caustic soda + 1 ton of PVC) was 177.28 yuan/ton (+30.63). The single - variety profit of caustic soda in Shandong was 1571.40 yuan/ton (+15.63), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of caustic soda + 1 ton of PVC) was 1311.75 yuan/ton (-20.00) [2]. - PVC: The single - variety production profit of PVC by the calcium carbide method was - 622.11 yuan/ton (+152.89), and by the ethylene method was - 538.36 yuan/ton (+19.87). The export profit of PVC was 19 US dollars/ton (+0) [5]. IV. Caustic Soda Supply - The caustic soda operating rate was 84.30% (-0.80%), and the weekly output was 82.83 tons (-0.62). Tianjin Bohua's 300,000 - ton new production capacity has reached full production, and the number of maintenance enterprises will increase next week, with an expected slight decline in output [1][2]. V. Liquid Chlorine Price and Liquid Chlorine Downstream - As of October 10, 2025, the price of liquid chlorine in Shandong was - 150 yuan/ton (-50). The operating rates of downstream products such as propylene oxide, epichlorohydrin, and dichloromethane increased, and the weekly output of chloroform was 3.27 tons (+0.16) [2]. VI. PVC Supply - The average operating load of upstream calcium carbide was 65.72% (+0.17%), the PVC operating rate was 82.63% (+1.21%), and the operating rate of PVC by the calcium carbide method was 82.94% (+0.81%). Although there are many autumn maintenance enterprises in October, new production capacities are gradually reaching full production, and the supply is still abundant [4][5]. VII. Caustic Soda Downstream Demand - The operating rate of the main downstream product, alumina, was 86.32% (+0.14%), with a weekly output of 186.30 tons (+0.30). The operating rates of other downstream industries such as printing and dyeing, viscose staple fiber, white cardboard, and broad - leaf pulp showed different changes [1]. VIII. PVC Downstream Demand - The comprehensive operating rate of PVC downstream was 39.21% (-8.55%), with the operating rates of PVC pipes, profiles, and films showing different trends. The pre - sales volume of PVC production enterprises was 58.31 tons (-19.27), and the export orders weakened this week, but there is still some resilience in exports [4][5]. IX. Caustic Soda & PVC Inventory Data - Caustic Soda: The domestic liquid caustic soda factory inventory was 42.12 tons (+3.00), and the flake caustic soda factory inventory was 2.11 tons (+0.10). - PVC: The PVC factory inventory was 38.36 tons (+8.40), and the social inventory was 55.70 tons (+1.93) [2][5].