化工周报：原料供应逐步回升，橡胶成本支撑减弱-20251012

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment ratings for RU and NR are neutral. The rating for BR is also neutral [4]. Core Views - For natural rubber, as rainfall decreases in major production areas at home and abroad, production is gradually increasing, and domestic raw material prices are falling. Although the raw material prices in Thailand remain firm, the supply is expected to increase due to the peak season and reduced rainfall. After pre - holiday stockpiling by downstream tire factories, raw material demand will slow down next week, but the rigid demand remains. The overall supply - demand situation in China is gradually becoming looser, and inventory depletion is expected to slow down or even accumulate again [3]. - For butadiene rubber, there are still maintenance plans for domestic butadiene rubber plants in October, with a similar scale to September, providing support on the supply side. After pre - holiday stockpiling by downstream tire factories, raw material demand will slow down next week, but the rigid demand remains. The overall operating rate of butadiene rubber this year is still at a high level year - on - year, and the supply remains abundant. It is expected that the downstream will continue to show peak - season characteristics, and the supply and demand of butadiene rubber will be strong [3][4]. Summary by Directory 1. Spread - The spread data includes the prices of natural rubber, 20 - grade rubber, BR rubber, and various rubber products, as well as the basis of NR, RU, BR, and differences between different rubber types and products [1][7][8]. 2. Supply Data - In terms of natural rubber, the inventory inflow rate at Qingdao Port is 10.56% (+2.06%), with the general trade inventory inflow rate at 11.61% (+1.99%) and the bonded warehouse inventory inflow rate at 4.62% (+2.15%). The output of high - cis butadiene rubber is 29,990 tons, and the operating rate is 74.69% (+4.15%). There are also data on natural rubber production in China, Thailand, Vietnam, and Indonesia, as well as China's natural rubber imports [1][7][8]. - Regarding production profit, the production profit of Thai STR20 is - 186.00 yuan/ton (+0.00), the production profit of Thai RSS3 is 2,847.00 yuan/ton (+0.00), the production profit of butadiene rubber is - 364 yuan/ton (-300), and the production profit of butadiene by carbon - four extraction method is 1,765.83 yuan/ton (-39.83) [2]. 3. Demand Data - The operating rate of all - steel tires is 41.53% (-13.83%), and the operating rate of semi - steel tires is 42.15% (-18%). The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong Province are 39.87 days (+0.36), and the inventory days of semi - steel tires are 45.70 days (-0.23). There are also data on the production of all - steel and semi - steel tires in Shandong Province, the export volume of motor vehicle pneumatic tires in China, and the operating rates of rubber shoe materials, rubber tubes, and conveyor belts [2][8]. 4. Inventory Data - The natural rubber inventory at Qingdao Port is 461,188 tons (-125,451), the social inventory of natural rubber is 1,112,557 tons (-122,953), the RU inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 144,390 tons (-5,420), and the NR futures inventory is 41,329 tons (-705). The port inventory of upstream butadiene is 27,750 tons (+0), the inventory of butadiene rubber production enterprises is 26,600 tons (+0), and the inventory of butadiene rubber traders is 5,700 tons (+0) [2].