新能源及有色金属周报：出口窗口打开使得沪锌空配价值减弱-20251012

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish. Arbitrage: Neutral [4] Core View - The opening of the export window weakens the short - allocation value of SHFE zinc. Although the domestic supply pressure remains, the export window opening and the change in domestic TC make the short - allocation logic change marginally. The SHFE zinc price will be more sensitive to overseas macro - positive factors, and the linkage between domestic and overseas markets will strengthen. With the LME inventory below 38,000 tons and the overseas premium rising, there is still a warrant risk. Despite short - term fluctuations caused by the tariff trade war, the long - term interest rate cut expectation remains unchanged, and there is no need to be overly pessimistic about the tariff impact [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Important Data - On October 10, 2025, the SHFE zinc main contract closed at 22,270 yuan/ton, with a fluctuation of 0.32%, and the LME price closed at $2,984.5/ton, with a fluctuation of - 0.01%. The spot prices in East China, Guangdong, and Tianjin were 22,300 yuan/ton, 22,320 yuan/ton, and 22,310 yuan/ton respectively, with different changes in the premium/discount to the main contract compared to the previous period. The LME (0 - 3) premium was $66.80/ton, with a weekly change of + $7.69/ton [1] - The weekly processing fee for domestic zinc concentrates by SMM was 3,500 yuan/metal ton, with a weekly change of - 150 yuan/ton, and the weekly processing fee index for imported zinc concentrates was $118.50/dry ton, with a weekly change of $2.60/dry ton. The import profit and loss of zinc concentrates was - 2,379.03 yuan/ton [1] - The operating rates of galvanizing, die - casting zinc alloy, and zinc oxide enterprises were 46.83% (a change of - 1.83% compared to last week), 46.51% (a change of - 0.35% compared to last week), and 56.08% (a change of - 1.24% compared to last week) respectively [1] Inventory - As of October 9, 2025, the total inventory of zinc ingots in SMM's seven major regions was 150,200 tons, an increase of 8,800 tons compared to the previous week. The warrant inventory was 60,644 tons, and the LME zinc inventory was 37,950 tons [2] Profit - As of October 10, 2025, the production profit of smelting enterprises (excluding by - product income) was about - 436 yuan/ton. The sulfuric acid price in Inner Mongolia was 735 yuan/ton, with no change compared to the previous week. After adding by - product income, the profit was about 1,100 yuan/ton [2] Market Analysis - Domestic smelters have low enthusiasm for purchasing domestic zinc ores. The domestic TC and imported TC continue to diverge, and the domestic TC declines. Although the domestic supply has not changed significantly, the opening of the export window changes the short - allocation logic marginally. The LME inventory is below 38,000 tons, and the overseas premium is rising, with a warrant risk. The tariff trade war causes short - term fluctuations, but the long - term interest rate cut expectation remains unchanged, and there is no need to be overly pessimistic about the tariff impact [3] Strategy - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish. Arbitrage: Neutral [4]