Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The ultra-long bonds started a rebound after an over - decline. The 9 - month PMI announced last week seasonally rebounded, with a net injection of 300 billion yuan in 3 - month repurchase agreements, and the Sino - US trade friction escalated again. After reaching a new high, the long - term bond yields quickly declined, and the ultra - long bonds rebounded slightly. [1][3][6][31] - In the short term, the bond market is expected to rebound after an over - decline. For the 30 - year treasury bonds, considering the widening of the 30 - 10 term spread, it is expected that the yield of the 30 - year variety will have a larger downward space in the rebound. For the 20 - year CDB bonds, considering the widening of the variety spread between the 20 - year CDB bonds and treasury bonds, it is expected that the yield of the 20 - year CDB bonds will have a larger downward space in the rebound. [2][7][8] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Ultra - long Bond Review - The 9 - month PMI announced last week seasonally rebounded, with a net injection of 300 billion yuan in 3 - month repurchase agreements, and the Sino - US trade friction escalated again. After reaching a new high, the long - term bond yields quickly declined, and the ultra - long bonds rebounded slightly. [1][3][6] - Against the background of the National Day holiday, the trading activity of ultra - long bonds decreased slightly last week, but overall trading remained active. [1][6] - Last week, the term spread of ultra - long bonds widened, and the variety spread narrowed. [1][3][6] Ultra - long Bond Investment Outlook 30 - year Treasury Bonds - As of October 12, the spread between 30 - year and 10 - year treasury bonds was 41BP, at a historically low level. [2][7] - In August, the downward pressure on the domestic economy continued to increase. The estimated year - on - year GDP growth rate in August was about 3.8%, continuing to decline from July. In terms of inflation, the CPI in August was - 0.4%, and the PPI was - 2.9%, with deflation risks remaining. [2][7][8] - In the short term, the bond market is expected to rebound after an over - decline. The domestic economic operation pressure was high in July and August, and the monetary policy is expected to continue to be relaxed. The current 10 - 1 term spread of 40BP is above the historical median, reflecting a relatively neutral economic expectation, and the upward pressure on the long - end is not large under the stable monetary policy. The A - share market still shows a structural market feature, and the emotional suppression of the stock market on the bond market has weakened. Considering the widening of the 30 - 10 term spread of treasury bonds recently, it is expected that the yield of the 30 - year variety will have a larger downward space in the rebound. [2][7] 20 - year CDB Bonds - As of October 12, the spread between 20 - year CDB bonds and 20 - year treasury bonds was 8BP, at a historically extremely low level. [2][8] - Similar to the 30 - year treasury bonds, in the short term, the bond market is expected to rebound after an over - decline. Considering the widening of the variety spread between the 20 - year CDB bonds and treasury bonds recently, it is expected that the yield of the 20 - year CDB bonds will have a larger downward space in the rebound. [2][8] Ultra - long Bond Basic Overview - As of September 30, the balance of ultra - long bonds with a remaining maturity of more than 14 years was 23.7802 trillion yuan (excluding asset - backed securities and project revenue notes), accounting for 15.0% of the total bond balance. Local government bonds and treasury bonds are the main varieties of ultra - long bonds. [9] - By remaining maturity, the 25 - 35 - year (inclusive) variety accounts for the highest proportion, at 39.9%. [9] Primary Market Weekly Issuance - Last week (from September 29 to October 12, 2025), the issuance volume of ultra - long bonds dropped sharply. A total of 4.72 billion yuan of ultra - long bonds were issued, a significant decrease compared with the previous week. [3][14] - By variety, 3 billion yuan of treasury bonds and 1.72 billion yuan of local government bonds were issued, while the issuance of other varieties was 0. [14] - By term, 140 million yuan with a 15 - year term, 480 million yuan with a 20 - year term, 1.1 billion yuan with a 30 - year term, and 3 billion yuan with a 50 - year term were issued. [14] This Week's Planned Issuance - The announced issuance plan of ultra - long bonds this week totals 5.77 billion yuan, including 4 billion yuan of ultra - long treasury bonds and 1.77 billion yuan of ultra - long local government bonds. [19] Secondary Market Trading Volume - Last week, the trading of ultra - long bonds was very active, with a trading volume of 568.9 billion yuan, accounting for 12.0% of the total bond trading volume. [21] - The trading activity of ultra - long bonds decreased slightly last week. Compared with the previous week, the trading volume of ultra - long bonds decreased by 685.6 billion yuan, and the proportion decreased by 1.4%. [22] Yield - The 9 - month PMI announced last week seasonally rebounded, with a net injection of 300 billion yuan in 3 - month repurchase agreements, and the Sino - US trade friction escalated again. After reaching a new high, the long - term bond yields quickly declined, and the ultra - long bonds rebounded slightly. [31] - For treasury bonds, the yields of 15 - year, 20 - year, 30 - year, and 50 - year bonds changed by - 4BP, - 2BP, 2BP, and - 1BP respectively, reaching 2.07%, 2.19%, 2.23%, and 2.27%. [31] - For CDB bonds, the yields of 15 - year, 20 - year, 30 - year, and 50 - year bonds changed by - 1BP, - 1BP, 3BP, and - 1BP respectively, reaching 2.19%, 2.28%, 2.36%, and 2.43%. [31] Spread Analysis - Term Spread: Last week, the term spread of ultra - long bonds widened, and the absolute level was low. The spread between 30 - year and 10 - year treasury bonds was 41BP, a change of 7BP from the previous week, at the 25% quantile since 2010. [40] - Variety Spread: Last week, the variety spread of ultra - long bonds narrowed, and the absolute level was low. The spread between 20 - year CDB bonds and treasury bonds was 9BP, and the spread between 20 - year railway bonds and treasury bonds was 15BP, changing by 1BP and - 3BP respectively from the previous week, at the 8% and 10% quantiles since 2010. [46] 30 - year Treasury Bond Futures - Last week (from October 5 to October 12), the main contract of 30 - year treasury bond futures, TL2512, closed at 113.97 yuan, a decrease of 0.03%. [49] - The total trading volume of 30 - year treasury bond futures was 524,800 lots (- 217,682 lots), and the open interest was 173,400 lots (1,695 lots). The trading volume decreased significantly compared with the previous week, while the open interest increased slightly. [49]
超长债周报：超长债开启超跌反弹-20251012
Guoxin Securities·2025-10-12 12:15