工业硅、多晶硅周度报告：工业硅供需矛盾不激烈，多晶硅消息频发-20251012

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Industrial silicon: Oscillation [1][5] - Polysilicon: Oscillation [1][5] 2. Core Views of the Report - Industrial silicon has seasonal inventory accumulation and depletion, but the fundamental contradictions are not obvious compared to the industry inventory of over 1 million tons. After hedging, short - term price drops are unlikely to cause production cuts, and prices need to exceed 10,000 yuan/ton to bring significant supply increments. The lower limit of industrial silicon prices may be clearer, and it is advisable to go long at low prices with caution [2][4][12] - The progress of platform companies in the polysilicon sector has fallen short of expectations, leading to a decline in the market. However, it may be premature to declare their failure. The judgment that spot prices will not fall in October is maintained. The PS2511 contract is significantly at a discount, and the PS2512 contract is basically at par. It is advisable to consider going long with a light position and pay attention to the PS2511 - PS2512 reverse arbitrage opportunity around - 2000 yuan/ton [4][14][19] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industrial Silicon/Polysilicon Industry Chain Prices - The Si2511 contract of industrial silicon increased by 45 yuan/ton to 8,685 yuan/ton compared to before the holiday. The spot price of East China oxygen - blown 553 remained at 9,450 yuan/ton, and the price of Xinjiang 99 silicon remained at 8,950 yuan/ton. The PS2511 contract of polysilicon decreased by 2,395 yuan/ton to 48,965 yuan/ton compared to before the holiday [10][11] 3.2 Industrial Silicon Supply - Demand and Market Conditions - Compared to the end of September, Xinjiang added 3 furnaces, and Yunnan reduced 1 furnace. Northern large - scale factories are increasing production, while some southern silicon factories are starting to reduce production slightly and may significantly cut production at the end of October. It is expected that the number of operating furnaces in Yunnan will drop to more than 20, and in Sichuan to around 35. The SMM industrial silicon social inventory increased by 0.2 million tons compared to before the holiday, and the sample factory inventory increased by 0.54 million tons. Downstream demand is for essential purchases. If the eastern base of Xinjiang large - scale factories opens 50 furnaces, the industrial silicon may accumulate about 40,000 tons of inventory from September to October and deplete about 50,000 tons during the dry season from November to December. If 60 furnaces are opened, it will be difficult to deplete inventory in November and only a small amount in December [2][12] 3.3 Organic Silicon Market Conditions - The price of organic silicon remained flat this week. Some production facilities are under maintenance. The overall enterprise operating rate is 71.95%, the weekly output is 47,600 tons (a decrease of 1.04% month - on - month), and the inventory is 42,900 tons (a decrease of 1.61% month - on - month). The operating rate has declined, supply has shrunk, and with the support of previous order fulfillment, monomer factories' inventory has been digested to some extent. Enterprises are more willing to hold prices, and the price is expected to oscillate with an upward bias [12][13] 3.4 Polysilicon Market Conditions - The spot price of dense material from first - tier manufacturers remained at 55 yuan/kg, and that from second - and third - tier manufacturers was 52 - 53 yuan/kg. The new order price of granular material was 51 yuan/kg. In September, the average transaction price of first - tier dense material was 51 - 52 yuan/kg, and a small number of orders reached 53 yuan/kg before the National Day. The large - scale transactions in October have not started yet. The production schedule for October has been further increased to 138,000 tons. There are rumors that the south - western base of leading enterprises will gradually reduce production during the dry season at the end of October. As of October 9, the factory inventory of polysilicon enterprises was 240,000 tons (an increase of 14,000 tons month - on - month), mainly concentrated in leading enterprises. As of September 30, the polysilicon inventory of silicon wafer enterprises was 222,000 tons (an increase of 14,000 tons month - on - month), reaching 2 - 2.5 months' supply. Although production restrictions have not been implemented, sales restrictions are still in place, making the monthly supply - demand situation tighter than shown in the balance sheet. Considering the inventory distribution and production pressure in downstream sectors, the spot price of polysilicon may remain flat [3][14] 3.5 Silicon Wafer Market Conditions - The price of silicon wafers remained stable this week. The mainstream transaction prices of M10/G12R/G12 silicon wafers remained at 1.35/1.40/1.70 yuan/piece. The production schedule for October was 55.68GW (a decrease of 3.4GW month - on - month). As of October 9, the inventory of silicon wafer factories was 16.78GW (an increase of 0.55GW month - on - month). The inventory is within a reasonable range, and future prices are expected to remain stable [15] 3.6 Battery Cell Market Conditions - The price of battery cells remained stable this week. The mainstream transaction prices of M10/G12R/G12 battery cells remained at 0.32/0.29/0.31 yuan/watt. Benefiting from domestic centralized demand, some battery manufacturers raised the price of G12 battery cells to 0.32 yuan/W. As of October 9, the inventory of Chinese photovoltaic battery export factories was 5.97GW (an increase of 2.93GW month - on - month). Due to the National Day holiday, the inventory has accumulated but is still under control. The domestic centralized orders are acceptable. India announced the final anti - dumping "suggested" tax rate on imported batteries and components from China on September 29, with a planned three - year levy period starting in 1 - 3 months. To avoid taxes, the Indian market may continue to stockpile batteries, and short - term battery exports are expected to increase again and remain high until the end of the year [16] 3.7 Component Market Conditions - The price of components remained basically stable this week. Centralized components mainly fulfilled previous orders, with the mainstream delivery price ranging from 0.63 to 0.69 yuan/watt. The delivery price for large - scale customers of distributed projects was between 0.66 and 0.69 yuan/watt, and a small number of transactions were above 0.7 yuan/watt. As of September 29, the inventory of Chinese photovoltaic component finished products was 33.6GW (a decrease of 1.6GW month - on - month). Some leading enterprises reduced production, and the domestic production schedule for October was 45.66GW (a decrease of 2.1GW month - on - month). The rush to install to meet the 14th Five - Year Plan target supports demand in October, but considering the poor tendering situation this year, the component demand from November to December may be pessimistic. Components are under pressure from rising raw material costs and price increases of auxiliary materials such as glass and adhesive films. With policy support, component prices will eventually rise, but terminal demand may decline. It is expected that component prices will oscillate in the short term, and attention should be paid to the introduction of demand - side policies [17] 3.8 Investment Suggestions - Industrial silicon: It is advisable to go long at low prices with higher probability of success but be cautious when chasing long positions [4][18][19] - Polysilicon: Consider going long with a light position and pay attention to the PS2511 - PS2512 reverse arbitrage opportunity around - 2000 yuan/ton [4][19] 3.9 Hot News - GCL Technology completed the first batch of subscriptions. The second batch will be completed on November 7th and 19th. After two rounds, it will receive approximately 5.446 billion Hong Kong dollars (about 5 billion yuan). The funds will be used for polysilicon capacity adjustment, R & D and production of silane gas and related materials, capital structure optimization, and general working capital [20] - The 15,000 - ton/year industrial silicon project in Angola has been fully put into operation. The second - phase project plans to invest 100 million US dollars to produce 200,000 tons of industrial silicon and various alloy materials, and the construction of the first 4 furnaces has started [21] - The US will impose a 68.45% tariff on industrial silicon imports from Angola starting from October 1st, and also impose high tariffs on imports from other countries [21]