Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2025-10-12 12:45Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Optimistic" rating for the chemical industry [6][4]. Core Views - Recent price increases in titanium dioxide and significant rises in refrigerant long-term contract prices are noted, indicating a potential recovery in profitability for the titanium dioxide sector [6]. - The macroeconomic outlook for the chemical industry is influenced by stable global GDP growth of 2.8%, with oil demand expected to rise despite some slowdown due to tariffs [6][7]. - The report suggests a strategic focus on sectors benefiting from "anti-involution" policies, including textiles, agriculture, and export-related chemicals [6]. Industry Dynamics - Oil supply is expected to increase significantly, driven by non-OPEC production, while demand remains stable [7]. - The chemical sector is experiencing a recovery phase, with improvements in supply-demand relationships and policy effects leading to price stabilization in various industrial products [9]. - The report highlights the importance of monitoring the performance of key materials in the semiconductor and OLED sectors, as well as the impact of geopolitical events on oil prices [6][12]. Sector Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on specific companies within the textile chain, agricultural chain, and export-related chemicals, such as: - Textile: Companies like Lu Xi Chemical and Tongkun Co. - Agriculture: Companies like Hualu Hengsheng and Baofeng Energy [6]. - Emphasis is placed on the potential for recovery in the titanium dioxide market, particularly with the easing of trade tensions and seasonal demand increases [6][4]. - The report also suggests monitoring the performance of companies in the fine chemicals sector, such as Xinhecheng and Juhua Co., as they may benefit from ongoing market trends [20].